Market Pulse44Neutral

Merck & Co., Inc.Opportunity Rank #47(MRK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$115.46

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$115.46
Price
$154.15
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 34%MOS: $123.32

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

47/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is estimated at $154.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.87% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is estimated at $154.15 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.87% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.91%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$154.15
33.51% upside
20% margin of safety: $123.32
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.87%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
33.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
30
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
65
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (63rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 134 (130 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
102 news sentiment+2.5
8 legal risk+0.5
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
5 earnings beat+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

47/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.7%
Distance from 52-Week High-6.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+5.5%
Price vs 21 EMA43 · -1.1%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA53 · +0.4%
3M RS vs SPY9 · -13.7%
6M RS vs SPY65 · +5.5%
Distance from 52W High86 · -6.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Merck & Co., Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 32.1% above the current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong narrative score. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between Merck's return on invested capital and its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.87%5 Year CAGR: 3.15%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$21,665$20,584$24,840$16,869$23,483$18,557$14,682$16,913$13,537$8,335$11,990$13,704$10,177$13,202$11,976$14,106$12,500$4,853$7,870$8,010$7,745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Merck & Co., Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Merck & Co., Inc.Healthcare

Merck & Co., Inc. is a global healthcare leader with operations spanning two core divisions: Pharmaceuticals and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical segment is dedicated to human health, offering a broad spectrum of medicinal products. These cover crucial therapeutic areas such as oncology, acute hospital care, immunology, neuroscience, virology, cardiovascular conditions, and diabetes. This division also develops vital preventive vaccines for pediatric, adolescent, and adult populations. Meanwhile, the Animal Health segment focuses on the research, development, manufacturing, and marketing of veterinary medications, vaccines, and comprehensive health management solutions for animals. This division further provides innovative digital products designed for animal identification, traceability, and continuous monitoring. Merck's extensive clientele encompasses drug wholesalers, pharmacies, hospitals, and government agencies. It also serves managed healthcare organizations, including health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and pharmacy benefit managers, as well as various other institutional clients. Additionally, the company supplies products to individual physicians and their distributors, veterinarians, and livestock producers. The organization actively engages in strategic collaborations with companies such as AstraZeneca PLC, Bayer AG, Eisai Co., Ltd., Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and Gilead Sciences, Inc. These partnerships are specifically aimed at the joint development and commercialization of prolonged-acting therapies for HIV. Established in 1891, Merck & Co., Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Kenilworth, New Jersey.