Market Pulse50Neutral

Merck & Co., Inc.Opportunity Rank #97(MRK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$115.67

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$115.67
Price
$147.54
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 28%MOS: $118.03

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is estimated at $147.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.83% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.87%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) is estimated at $147.54 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $115.67, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.83% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.87%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$147.54
27.55% upside
20% margin of safety: $118.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.83%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.23%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.6% discount to price
96
FCF Yield
7.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
35
Net Debt / FCF
1.7x net debt to FCF
39
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
60
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (20th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 199 (188 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
119 news sentiment+1.3
61 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Restructuring+0.0
4 earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Merck & Co., Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 30.1% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong discounted cash flow yield. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company’s buybacks and free cash flow growth present a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The company’s return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.83%5 Year CAGR: 2.09%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$20,584$20,584$24,840$16,869$23,483$18,557$14,682$16,913$13,537$8,335$11,990$13,704$10,177$13,202$11,976$14,106$12,500$4,853$7,870$8,010$7,745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Merck & Co., Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Merck & Co., Inc.Healthcare

Merck & Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide. It operates through two segments, Pharmaceutical and Animal Health. The Pharmaceutical segment offers human health pharmaceutical products in the areas of oncology, hospital acute care, immunology, neuroscience, virology, cardiovascular, and diabetes, as well as vaccine products, such as preventive pediatric, adolescent, and adult vaccines. The Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets veterinary pharmaceuticals, vaccines, and health management solutions and services, as well as digitally connected identification, traceability, and monitoring products. It serves drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, and government agencies; managed health care providers, such as health maintenance organizations, pharmacy benefit managers, and other institutions; and physicians and physician distributors, veterinarians, and animal producers. The company has collaborations with AstraZeneca PLC; Bayer AG; Eisai Co., Ltd.; Ridgeback Biotherapeutics; and Gilead Sciences, Inc. to jointly develop and commercialize long-acting treatments in HIV. Merck & Co., Inc. was founded in 1891 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey.