Mercury Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #265(MRCY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$88.06
Last updated: May 08, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
No change vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-05-08
The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $28.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.89% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $28.60 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $88.06, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.89% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.30%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Monitor if the stock price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to the estimated fair value.
- Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
- Follow changes in the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the fundamental score direction.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Mercury Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Mercury Systems, Inc.Industrials
Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for aerospace and defense industries in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Its products and solutions are deployed in approximately 300 programs with 25 defense contractors and commercial aviation customers. The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing modules and boards, switched fabric boards, digital receiver boards, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video processing, and Ethernet and input-output boards; and integrated subsystems. It also designs and develops digital radio frequency memory units for various modern electronic warfare applications; radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence applications; and signals intelligence payloads and EO/IR technologies for small UAV platforms, as well as onboard UAV processor systems for real-time wide area motion imagery. The company was formerly known as Mercury Computer Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012. Mercury Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.