Market Pulse50Neutral

Mercury Systems, Inc.(MRCY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$78.29

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$78.29
Price
$34.08
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 56%MOS: $27.26

Fundamental Score

10/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $34.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $78.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is estimated at $34.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $78.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$34.08
-56.47% downside
20% margin of safety: $27.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.03%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

10/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
56.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.0% trailing FCF yield
25
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.0% vs WACC 8.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.0x net debt to FCF
29
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 65%Updated: 32m ago
Sources: 18 (16 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 news sentiment+0.2
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Margin pressure-0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 82%
Thesis
Mercury Systems, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 55.5% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits poor ROIC performance and declining free cash flow growth, indicating bearish prospects.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC and lack of positive narrative coverage could further depress valuation and investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Emergence of fresh positive narrative or sentiment coverage
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.98%5 Year CAGR: 74.25%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$141$159$159$95$18$9$158$124$58$92$45$38$21$2$41$43$23$15$18-$2$35

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mercury Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mercury Systems, Inc.Industrials

Mercury Systems, Inc., a technology company, manufactures and sells components, products, modules, and subsystems for aerospace and defense industries in the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Its products and solutions are deployed in approximately 300 programs with 25 defense contractors and commercial aviation customers. The company offers components, including power amplifiers and limiters, switches, oscillators, filters, equalizers, digital and analog converters, chips, monolithic microwave integrated circuits, and memory and storage devices; modules and sub-assemblies, such as embedded processing modules and boards, switched fabric boards, digital receiver boards, multi-chip modules, integrated radio frequency and microwave multi-function assemblies, tuners, and transceivers, as well as graphics and video processing, and Ethernet and input-output boards; and integrated subsystems. It also designs and develops digital radio frequency memory units for various modern electronic warfare applications; radar environment simulation and test systems for defense and intelligence applications; and signals intelligence payloads and EO/IR technologies for small UAV platforms, as well as onboard UAV processor systems for real-time wide area motion imagery. The company was formerly known as Mercury Computer Systems, Inc. and changed its name to Mercury Systems, Inc. in November 2012. Mercury Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1981 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.