Market Pulse59Neutral

Mega Matrix Corp.(MPU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$0.60

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$0.60
Price
-$0.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 110%MOS: -$0.05

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.12% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -37.12% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.44%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.06
▼ -110.02% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: -37.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-49.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
110.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-26.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -49.7% vs WACC 7.0% (-7.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.0x net debt to FCF
60
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-39.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (9th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 38%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 3 (3 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Regulatory scrutiny-0.1
News sentiment+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Mega Matrix Corp. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 150% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company’s returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and operational inefficiency.
Key Risk
Continued negative returns on invested capital and deteriorating free cash flow could further erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the company’s score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -37.11%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -28.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$7-$10$4-$3-$6-$3$4$8$41$47$66$12$80$32$56$10$14$29$29$48$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mega Matrix Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mega Matrix Corp.Industrials

Mega Matrix Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the GameFi business in the metaverse ecosystem. The company offers Ethereum platform to stake on a node for the purpose of validating transactions and adding blocks to a respective blockchain network. It also provides aircraft advisory and management services. The company was formerly known as AeroCentury Corp. and changed its name to Mega Matrix Corp. in March 2022. Mega Matrix Corp. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.