Market Pulse50Neutral

Mega Matrix Corp.Opportunity Rank #306(MPU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$0.75

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$0.75
Price
-$0.22
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 129%MOS: -$0.18

Fundamental Score

8/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.75, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -22.25% long-term growth rate and an 11.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mega Matrix Corp. (MPU) is estimated at $-0.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $0.75, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -22.25% long-term growth rate and an 11.64% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.22
▼ -129.33% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: -22.25%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-25.99%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

8/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
129.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-20.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -26.0% vs WACC 7.0% (-3.7x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
53
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-43.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (50th pct)Based on limited recent narrative data
Trend: StableConfidence: 25%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 0
Drivers(last 30 days)
No narrative drivers available yet.

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Mega Matrix Corp. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 156% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals including a negative free cash flow yield and a substantial negative spread between ROIC and WACC. The company's financial health is deteriorating, reflected in declining free cash flow and poor returns on invested capital.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in financial performance and valuation could lead to further downside risk for shareholders.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -22.30%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -40.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011201020092008200720062005
-$8$4-$3-$6-$3$4$8$41$47$66$12$80$32$56$10$14$29$29$48$14$34

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mega Matrix Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mega Matrix Corp.Industrials

Mega Matrix Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the GameFi business in the metaverse ecosystem. The company offers Ethereum platform to stake on a node for the purpose of validating transactions and adding blocks to a respective blockchain network. It also provides aircraft advisory and management services. The company was formerly known as AeroCentury Corp. and changed its name to Mega Matrix Corp. in March 2022. Mega Matrix Corp. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.