Market Pulse44Neutral

Altria Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #177(MO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$69.51

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$69.51
Price
$69.03
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 1%MOS: $55.22

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $69.03 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $69.51, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.15%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $69.03 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $69.51, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.23% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.15%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$69.03
-0.69% downside
20% margin of safety: $55.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
0.7% premium to price
49
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.7x)
84
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
21
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 107 (103 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
85 news sentiment+0.6
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Restructuring-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-6.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-7.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.6%
Price vs 21 EMA40 · -1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA48 · -0.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY24 · -7.0%
6M RS vs SPY68 · +6.6%
Distance from 52W High86 · -6.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Altria Group, Inc. demonstrates a strong return on invested capital exceeding its cost of capital by 4.5 percentage points and maintains a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%, supported by constructive fundamentals. Despite the current valuation being slightly above fair value, the company's stable narrative and ongoing buybacks suggest potential for patient investors.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the stock's valuation being near or above fair value, which may limit upside and requires monitoring for any deterioration in ROIC relative to cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Significant shifts in the narrative score or fundamental trends.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.23%5 Year CAGR: 1.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,165$9,506$8,895$9,483$8,461$8,574$8,616$8,083$8,629$5,121$3,980$6,039$4,826$4,506$4,027$3,718$2,935$3,716$5,122$11,762$16,040

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Altria Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Altria Group, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Operating across the United States through its subsidiaries, Altria Group, Inc. is a prominent manufacturer and marketer of both combustible and oral tobacco items. Its portfolio features cigarettes, primarily under the iconic Marlboro brand, alongside cigars and pipe tobacco mainly offered as Black & Mild. The enterprise further provides an assortment of moist smokeless tobacco products, including Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky, in addition to its on! brand of oral nicotine pouches. Altria distributes its merchandise chiefly to wholesale partners, such as independent distributors, and directly to substantial retail organizations, including major chain stores. The corporation, founded in 1822, maintains its principal offices in Richmond, Virginia.

Altria Group, Inc. (MO) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq