Market Pulse50Neutral

Altria Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #139(MO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$64.39

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$64.39
Price
$72.09
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 12%MOS: $57.67

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

78/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $72.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $64.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.28% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Altria Group, Inc. (MO) is estimated at $72.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $64.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.28% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.06%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$72.09
11.96% upside
20% margin of safety: $57.67
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.28%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.0% discount to price
70
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.1% vs WACC 7.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
2.2x net debt to FCF
23
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

78/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 131 (125 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny+1.6
98 news sentiment+1.3
Macro headwinds+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Altria Group, Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a valuation implying a 10% upside and a return on invested capital (ROIC) exceeding its cost of capital by 3.1 percentage points. The company's fundamentals are constructive and supported by a stable narrative score, indicating potential for sustained performance.
Key Risk
A key risk is that the ROIC may fall below the cost of capital, undermining the company's value creation potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.28%5 Year CAGR: 2.09%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,506$9,506$8,895$9,483$8,461$8,574$8,616$8,083$8,629$5,121$3,980$6,039$4,826$4,506$4,027$3,718$2,935$3,716$5,122$11,762$16,040

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Altria Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Altria Group, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches. It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.