Market Pulse59Neutral

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #289(MKC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$47.90

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$47.90
Price
$41.70
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $33.36

Fundamental Score

27/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

11/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $41.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $47.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.23% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $41.70 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $47.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.23% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$41.70
-12.94% downside
20% margin of safety: $33.36
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

27/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.9% premium to price
28
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
5.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 103 (95 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
88 news sentiment+0.9
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 legal risk+0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

11/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-34.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.0%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA9 · -11.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA9 · -6.6%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.1%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -34.0%
Distance from 52W High25 · -37.7%

Investment Coach

Updated 23h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 69%
Thesis
McCormick & Company exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital and elevated leverage, despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The stock is currently overvalued with a negative upside to fair value, suggesting limited near-term appreciation potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and financial health.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.23%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.63%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$944$1,184$1,197$1,501$914$1,106$1,267$1,121$990$998$812$718$636$565$565$437$477$498$400$303$396

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McCormick & Company, Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive

McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts. This segment markets its products under the McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's Cholula Hot Sauce, Gourmet Garden, Club House, and OLD BAY brands in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, and Drogheria & Alimentari, and Vahiné brands in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; McCormick and DaQiao brands in China; and McCormick, Aeroplane, and Gourmet Garden brands in Australia, as well as markets regional and ethnic brands, such as Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia. It also supplies its products under the private labels. This segment serves retailers comprising grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce retailers directly and indirectly through distributors and wholesale foodservice suppliers. The Flavor Solutions segment offers seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems, and compound flavors to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. It serves foodservice customers directly and indirectly through distributors. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.