Market Pulse50Neutral

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #225(MKC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$53.25

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$53.25
Price
$51.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $41.18

Fundamental Score

32/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $51.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $53.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.29% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $51.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $53.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.29% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$51.48
-3.32% downside
20% margin of safety: $41.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.29%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

32/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.3% premium to price
44
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (94th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 42 (38 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 news sentiment+0.6
Earnings beat+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
McCormick & Company currently exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield and valuation near fair value. Patience is advised as the stock does not present compelling upside at present.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to depress shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread indicating better capital efficiency.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend that could affect the fundamental score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.29%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,046$1,184$1,197$1,501$914$1,106$1,267$1,121$990$998$812$718$636$565$565$437$477$498$400$303$396

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McCormick & Company, Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive

McCormick & Company, Incorporated manufactures, markets, and distributes spices, seasoning mixes, condiments, and other flavorful products to the food industry. It operates in two segments, Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment offers spices, herbs, and seasonings, as well as condiments and sauces, and desserts. This segment markets its products under the McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's Cholula Hot Sauce, Gourmet Garden, Club House, and OLD BAY brands in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, and Drogheria & Alimentari, and Vahiné brands in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa; McCormick and DaQiao brands in China; and McCormick, Aeroplane, and Gourmet Garden brands in Australia, as well as markets regional and ethnic brands, such as Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia. It also supplies its products under the private labels. This segment serves retailers comprising grocery, mass merchandise, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce retailers directly and indirectly through distributors and wholesale foodservice suppliers. The Flavor Solutions segment offers seasoning blends, spices and herbs, condiments, coating systems, and compound flavors to multinational food manufacturers and foodservice customers. It serves foodservice customers directly and indirectly through distributors. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Hunt Valley, Maryland.