Market Pulse44Neutral

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #268(MKC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$45.73

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$45.73
Price
$43.83
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 4%MOS: $35.06

Fundamental Score

30/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

14/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $43.83 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.25% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC) is estimated at $43.83 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $45.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.25% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.83
-4.15% downside
20% margin of safety: $35.06
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.15%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

30/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.2% premium to price
43
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
12
Net Debt / FCF
4.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (42nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 8m ago
Sources: 41 (33 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
27 news sentiment+0.3
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

14/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-44.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.9%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.5%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.7%
Price vs 50 EMA17 · -7.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -3.9%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.9%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -44.3%
Distance from 52W High18 · -41.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
McCormick & Company exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital and shares currently priced above fair value. Elevated leverage further undermines its financial stability, suggesting limited upside potential.
Key Risk
Continued underperformance relative to cost of capital and sustained high leverage could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.25%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$977$1,184$1,197$1,501$914$1,106$1,267$1,121$990$998$812$718$636$565$565$437$477$498$400$303$396

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McCormick & Company, Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McCormick & Company, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive

McCormick & Company, Incorporated is a global leader in the manufacture, marketing, and distribution of a wide array of flavorful products, including spices, seasoning mixes, and condiments, to the food industry. Its operations are divided into two primary segments: Consumer and Flavor Solutions. The Consumer segment provides an extensive range of items such as spices, herbs, seasonings, sauces, and desserts. These are sold under numerous prominent brands across various regions: McCormick, French's, Frank's RedHot, Lawry's Cholula Hot Sauce, Gourmet Garden, Club House, and OLD BAY in the Americas; Ducros, Schwartz, Kamis, Drogheria & Alimentari, and Vahiné throughout Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA); McCormick and DaQiao in China; and McCormick, Aeroplane, and Gourmet Garden in Australia. In addition, it offers specialized regional and ethnic brands like Zatarain's, Stubb's, Thai Kitchen, and Simply Asia, and also produces goods for private labels. Its customer base encompasses a broad spectrum of retailers, including grocery stores, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, discount and drug stores, and e-commerce platforms. Distribution to these outlets occurs both directly and indirectly via distributors and wholesale foodservice providers. The Flavor Solutions segment caters to large-scale food manufacturers and the wider foodservice industry. It supplies essential ingredients such as seasoning blends, spices, herbs, condiments, coating systems, and complex flavor formulations. These products are delivered directly to clients or through a network of distributors. Founded in 1889, the company maintains its headquarters in Hunt Valley, Maryland.