Market Pulse50Neutral

Meta Platforms, Inc.Opportunity Rank #21(META) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$604.06

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$604.06
Price
$1,453.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 141%MOS: $1,162.42

Fundamental Score

82/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,453.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $604.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.11% long-term growth rate and a 9.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is estimated at $1,453.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $604.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.11% long-term growth rate and a 9.60% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1,453.02
▲ 140.54% upside
20% margin of safety: $1,162.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.11%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

82/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
140.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.0% vs WACC 8.0% (1.1x)
56
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
28.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (61st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 57m ago
Sources: 221 (200 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+3.6
20 layoffs-1.4
39 regulatory scrutiny+1.3
Earnings beat+0.3
Legal risk-0.2
Margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Meta Platforms, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 138.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 12.2% and a positive ROIC versus WACC spread. The company's improving narrative and robust fundamental scores indicate a bullish outlook with substantial upside potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the valuation discount narrows below 10%, reducing the expected upside and signaling potential overvaluation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.27%5 Year CAGR: 19.46%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$185,491$185,491$128,584$98,379$81,906$76,250$53,862$51,416$43,189$30,949$20,599$11,122$7,288$5,584$2,847$2,155$991$188

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Meta Platforms, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Meta Platforms, Inc.Communication Services

Meta Platforms, Inc. engages in the development of products that enable people to connect and share with friends and family through mobile devices, personal computers, virtual reality headsets, and wearables worldwide. It operates in two segments, Family of Apps and Reality Labs. The Family of Apps segment offers Facebook, which enables people to share, discuss, discover, and connect with interests; Instagram, a community for sharing photos, videos, and private messages, as well as feed, stories, reels, video, live, and shops; Messenger, a messaging application for people to connect with friends, family, communities, and businesses across platforms and devices through text, audio, and video calls; and WhatsApp, a messaging application that is used by people and businesses to communicate and transact privately. The Reality Labs segment provides augmented and virtual reality related products comprising consumer hardware, software, and content that help people feel connected, anytime, and anywhere. The company was formerly known as Facebook, Inc. and changed its name to Meta Platforms, Inc. in October 2021. Meta Platforms, Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.