Market Pulse50Neutral

MercadoLibre, Inc.Opportunity Rank #39(MELI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1,666.08

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,666.08
Price
$4,930.65
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 196%MOS: $3,944.52

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is estimated at $4,930.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,666.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.54% long-term growth rate and a 9.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is estimated at $4,930.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,666.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.54% long-term growth rate and a 9.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4,930.65
195.94% upside
20% margin of safety: $3,944.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.54%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.09%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
195.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
54.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (62nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 187 (176 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
35 regulatory scrutiny+2.1
132 news sentiment+1.7
2 downgrade headlines-0.5
5 margin pressure+0.3
Analyst downgrades-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
MercadoLibre, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 212% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score, indicating attractive long-term investment potential.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital is currently below its weighted average cost of capital, which could pressure future profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.54%5 Year CAGR: 51.53%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$12,579$13,459$8,778$5,649$3,395$1,575$1,430$588$329$344$268$286$232$257$158$109$82$54$60$10$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates MercadoLibre, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

MercadoLibre, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates online commerce platforms in Latin America. It operates Mercado Libre Marketplace, an automated online commerce platform that enables businesses, merchants, and individuals to list merchandise and conduct sales and purchases online; and Mercado Pago FinTech platform, a financial technology solution platform, which facilitates transactions on and off its marketplaces by providing a mechanism that allows its users to send and receive payments online, as well as allows users to transfer money through their websites or on the apps. The company also offers Mercado Fondo that allows users to invest funds deposited in their Mercado Pago accounts; Mercado Credito, which extends loans to certain merchants and consumers; and Mercado Envios logistics solution that enables sellers on its platform to utilize third-party carriers and other logistics service providers, as well as fulfillment and warehousing services for sellers. In addition, it provides Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classified listing service, where users can list and purchase motor vehicles, real estate, and services; Mercado Libre Ads, an advertising platform, which enables large retailers and brands to promote their products and services on the Internet; and Mercado Shops, an online storefronts solution that enables users to set-up, manage, and promote their own digital stores. MercadoLibre, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.