Market Pulse53Neutral

MercadoLibre, Inc.Opportunity Rank #46(MELI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1,798.70

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,798.70
Price
$5,568.28
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 210%MOS: $4,454.62

Fundamental Score

78/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

46/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is estimated at $5,568.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,798.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.56% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) is estimated at $5,568.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,798.70, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.56% long-term growth rate and a 9.28% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$5,568.28
209.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $4,454.62
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.56%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.4%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

78/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
209.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
25
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
93
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
55.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (25th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 99%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 109 (98 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
71 news sentiment+1.4
11 regulatory scrutiny-0.7
8 margin pressure+0.2
8 legal risk-0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

46/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.6%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-4.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.1%
Price vs 21 EMA55 · +0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +3.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA66 · +2.1%
3M RS vs SPY31 · -4.7%
6M RS vs SPY7 · -23.6%
Distance from 52W High43 · -28.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
MercadoLibre, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 275% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 16.4%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust growth potential and effective capital management.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.56%5 Year CAGR: 52.96%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,186$13,459$8,778$5,649$3,395$1,575$1,430$588$329$344$268$286$232$257$158$109$82$54$60$10$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates MercadoLibre, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

MercadoLibre, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates as a prominent provider of digital commerce platforms throughout Latin America. Its primary service, the Mercado Libre Marketplace, is an automated online system allowing businesses, independent vendors, and private individuals to list merchandise and finalize sales. Supporting this, the Mercado Pago FinTech platform offers a financial technology solution, facilitating transactions both on and off its e-commerce sites by enabling users to securely send and receive online payments and transfer funds via web and mobile applications. The company further expands its financial offerings through Mercado Fondo, a service that permits users to invest balances held in their Mercado Pago accounts, and Mercado Credito, which extends credit options to qualified merchants and consumers. For logistics, Mercado Envios provides a comprehensive solution, empowering sellers on its platform to utilize third-party delivery services and other logistical partners, including warehousing and fulfillment capabilities. Beyond these core services, MercadoLibre also runs Mercado Libre Classifieds, an online classifieds platform for motor vehicles, real estate, and professional services. Mercado Libre Ads serves as an advertising platform, assisting major retailers and brands in promoting their products and services across the internet. Lastly, Mercado Shops offers a solution for users to establish, manage, and market their personalized online storefronts. Founded in 1999, MercadoLibre, Inc. is headquartered in Montevideo, Uruguay.