Market Pulse50Neutral

Medtronic plcOpportunity Rank #160(MDT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$87.17

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$87.17
Price
$108.52
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 24%MOS: $86.82

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $108.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.46% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Medtronic plc (MDT) is estimated at $108.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.46% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$108.52
24.49% upside
20% margin of safety: $86.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.46%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.5% discount to price
91
FCF Yield
8.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
26
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (20th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 47m ago
Sources: 122 (113 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
41 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
71 news sentiment+0.4
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk-0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Medtronic plc is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 26.6% above its current price and maintains a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.2%. However, its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.46%5 Year CAGR: 3.82%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,160$8,903$8,374$7,498$8,714$7,595$8,447$8,141$5,752$8,134$6,264$5,473$5,355$5,340$4,909$4,289$4,766$4,541$4,095$3,673$3,452

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Medtronic plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Medtronic plcHealthcare

Medtronic plc develops, manufactures, and sells device-based medical therapies to healthcare systems, physicians, clinicians, and patients worldwide. Its Cardiovascular Portfolio segment offers implantable cardiac pacemakers, cardioverter defibrillators, and cardiac resynchronization therapy devices; cardiac ablation products; insertable cardiac monitor systems; TYRX products; and remote monitoring and patient-centered software. It also provides aortic valves, surgical valve replacement and repair products, endovascular stent grafts and accessories, and transcatheter pulmonary valves; and percutaneous coronary intervention products, percutaneous angioplasty balloons, and products. The company's Medical Surgical Portfolio segment offers surgical stapling devices, vessel sealing instruments, wound closure, electrosurgery products, surgical artificial intelligence and robotic-assisted surgery products, hernia mechanical devices, mesh implants, gynecology and lung products, and various therapies to treat diseases, as well as products in the fields of minimally invasive gastrointestinal and hepatologic diagnostics and therapies, patient monitoring, airway management and ventilation therapies, and renal disease. Its Neuroscience Portfolio segment offers products for spinal surgeons; neurosurgeons; neurologists; pain management specialists; anesthesiologists; orthopedic surgeons; urologists; urogynecologists; interventional radiologists; ear, nose, and throat specialists; and systems that incorporate energy surgical instruments. It also provides image-guided surgery and intra-operative imaging systems and robotic guidance systems used in robot assisted spine procedures; and therapies for vasculature in and around the brain. The company's Diabetes Operating Unit segment offers insulin pumps and consumables, continuous glucose monitoring systems, smart insulin pen systems, and consumables and supplies. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.