Market Pulse50Neutral

MongoDB, Inc.Opportunity Rank #257(MDB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$273.25

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$273.25
Price
$155.10
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 43%MOS: $124.08

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is estimated at $155.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $273.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is estimated at $155.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $273.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$155.10
▼ -43.24% downside
20% margin of safety: $124.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.89%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
43.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
9
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.9% vs WACC 7.0% (-0.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
253.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 150 (117 News · 33 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
86 news sentiment+0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Downgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
25 regulatory scrutiny-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 80%
Thesis
MongoDB, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 41% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a strong free cash flow growth rate, the company’s return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, indicating weak profitability.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 33.90%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 253.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$518$180$128-$6$15-$31-$26-$35-$43-$36-$46

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates MongoDB, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

MongoDB, Inc.Technology

MongoDB, Inc. provides general purpose database platform worldwide. The company offers MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a commercial database server for enterprise customers to run in the cloud, on-premise, or in a hybrid environment; MongoDB Atlas, a hosted multi-cloud database-as-a-service solution; and Community Server, a free-to-download version of its database, which includes the functionality that developers need to get started with MongoDB. It also provides professional services comprising consulting and training. The company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. and changed its name to MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013. MongoDB, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq