Market Pulse44Neutral

MongoDB, Inc.Opportunity Rank #259(MDB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$319.16

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$319.16
Price
$186.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 42%MOS: $149.19

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is estimated at $186.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $319.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.75% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) is estimated at $186.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $319.16, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 10.75% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$186.49
▼ -41.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $149.19
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
41.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
9
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.5% vs WACC 7.0% (-0.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
264.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 92 (64 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
54 news sentiment+1.1
Earnings beat+0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
7 legal risk-0.0
28 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+5.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.4%
Price vs 21 EMA20 · -5.4%
Price vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA86 · +5.5%
3M RS vs SPY78 · +7.4%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -33.5%
Distance from 52W High45 · -27.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 11d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
MongoDB, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 44%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive narrative. The company shows improving narrative scores but deteriorating trends, indicating caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which undermines value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC vs WACC spread showing sustained improvement
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 33.22%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 264.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$611$180$128-$6$15-$31-$26-$35-$43-$36-$46

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates MongoDB, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

MongoDB, Inc.Technology

MongoDB, Inc. serves as a global provider of a versatile database platform. The company's offerings feature MongoDB Enterprise Advanced, a sophisticated commercial database server designed for corporate clients, which can be deployed in cloud, on-premises, or hybrid environments. It also presents MongoDB Atlas, a fully managed, multi-cloud database-as-a-service (DBaaS) solution. For developers seeking to start with MongoDB, the company offers a free, downloadable Community Server that includes fundamental database functionalities. Beyond its core database products, MongoDB, Inc. provides professional services such as consulting and training. Founded in 2007 and based in New York, New York, the company was formerly known as 10gen, Inc. before adopting the name MongoDB, Inc. in August 2013.