Market Pulse59Neutral

McDonald's CorporationOpportunity Rank #209(MCD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$283.70

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$283.70
Price
$267.95
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 6%MOS: $214.36

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $267.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $283.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $267.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $283.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$267.95
▼ -5.55% downside
20% margin of safety: $214.36
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.17%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
5.6% premium to price
41
FCF Yield
6.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
3.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
-1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 179 (153 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
121 news sentiment+4.8
3 earnings beat+0.8
25 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
3 promotions/discounting-0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-9.1%
Price vs 21 EMA17 · -6.1%
Price vs 50 EMA13 · -9.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA25 · -3.2%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.5%
6M RS vs SPY11 · -18.6%
Distance from 52W High62 · -19.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
McDonald's Corporation shows a strong narrative trend and healthy free cash flow yield of 6.9%, supported by constructive fundamentals despite returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company benefits from buybacks and improving narrative confidence, indicating potential value if valuation discounts deepen.
Key Risk
The key risk is that McDonald's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.36%5 Year CAGR: 4.47%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,916$13,916$12,222$11,969$9,286$11,182$7,906$10,516$9,708$7,405$7,881$8,353$9,314$9,945$10,015$9,880$8,477$7,703$8,053$6,823$6,083

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McDonald's CorporationConsumer Cyclical

McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer hamburgers and cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches and nuggets, wraps, fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, bakery items, soft drinks, coffee, and beverages and other beverages, as well as breakfast menu, including biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, hotcakes, and other sandwiches. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 40,031 restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.