Market Pulse50Neutral

McDonald's CorporationOpportunity Rank #187(MCD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$308.47

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$308.47
Price
$288.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 7%MOS: $230.40

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $288.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $308.47, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.16%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of McDonald's Corporation (MCD) is estimated at $288.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $308.47, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.16%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$288.00
▼ -6.64% downside
20% margin of safety: $230.40
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
6.6% premium to price
39
FCF Yield
6.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.8% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
48
Net Debt / FCF
2.8x net debt to FCF
5
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (18th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 203 (180 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
122 news sentiment+0.8
7 promotions/discounting+0.2
Legal risk-0.1
6 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
McDonald's Corporation presents a constructive fundamental profile with a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.3%, supported by a strong narrative score and consistent buybacks, making it a buy despite a slight overvaluation relative to fair value. The company's fundamentals and cash flow growth suggest potential for long-term value creation if valuation levels become more attractive.
Key Risk
The key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend combined with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may signal weakening competitive advantage and profitability pressures.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.36%5 Year CAGR: 4.47%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,916$13,916$12,222$11,969$9,286$11,182$7,906$10,516$9,708$7,405$7,881$8,353$9,314$9,945$10,015$9,880$8,477$7,703$8,053$6,823$6,083

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates McDonald's Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

McDonald's CorporationConsumer Cyclical

McDonald's Corporation operates and franchises McDonald's restaurants in the United States and internationally. Its restaurants offer hamburgers and cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches and nuggets, wraps, fries, salads, oatmeal, shakes, desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, bakery items, soft drinks, coffee, and beverages and other beverages, as well as breakfast menu, including biscuit and bagel sandwiches, breakfast burritos, hotcakes, and other sandwiches. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 40,031 restaurants. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.