Market Pulse46Neutral

Mastercard IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #147(MA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$526.74

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$526.74
Price
$485.87
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 8%MOS: $388.70

Fundamental Score

77/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

77/100
Strong

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $485.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $526.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $485.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $526.74, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.98%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$485.87
▼ -7.76% downside
20% margin of safety: $388.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
24%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

77/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
7.8% premium to price
37
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
50
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 24.0% vs WACC 11.0% (2.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
18.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount.

Narrative Details

77/100
Strong
-3 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (39th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 144 (133 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
112 news sentiment+2.0
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Earnings beat+0.2
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.6%
Distance from 52-Week High-12.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.1%
Price vs 50 EMA70 · +4.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA60 · +1.2%
3M RS vs SPY25 · -6.4%
6M RS vs SPY11 · -18.6%
Distance from 52W High76 · -12.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Mastercard demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital, supported by solid free cash flow growth and shareholder buybacks. Although the valuation is near fair value, the company's robust financial metrics and market position justify a buy with patience.
Key Risk
A deteriorating narrative trend could signal emerging challenges that may impact Mastercard's growth and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score trend shows meaningful shifts, especially improvements or further deterioration.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.61%5 Year CAGR: 12.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$18,684$17,890$15,254$12,351$12,292$10,277$7,932$8,911$6,727$5,978$4,866$4,385$3,741$4,434$3,166$2,861$1,848$1,518$584$926$745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mastercard IncorporatedFinancial Services

Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally. Its core business centers on enabling the entire payment transaction lifecycle – including authorization, clearing, and settlement – alongside offering a spectrum of complementary payment services. The company provides a comprehensive suite of integrated products and value-added services to a diverse clientele, which includes individual account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations. These offerings span programs enabling deferred payment credit, prepaid card management services, commercial credit and debit solutions, and tools for accessing funds in deposit and other accounts. Additionally, Mastercard offers advanced cyber and intelligence solutions designed to secure transactions for all participants, and provides proprietary insights derived from the responsible utilization of consumer and merchant data. For online merchants, its specialized offerings encompass analytics, experimental "test and learn" platforms, consulting, managed services, loyalty programs, payment processing, and secure gateway technologies. The company also operates open banking and digital identity platforms. Its prominent payment solutions are delivered under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus brands. Established in 1966, Mastercard Incorporated is headquartered in Purchase, New York.