Market Pulse44Neutral

Mastercard IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #156(MA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$484.09

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$484.09
Price
$485.87
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 0%MOS: $388.70

Fundamental Score

81/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

30/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $485.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $484.09, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $485.87 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $484.09, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$485.87
0.37% upside
20% margin of safety: $388.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
23.76%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

81/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
0.4% discount to price
51
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
59
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 23.8% vs WACC 11.0% (2.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
18.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (8th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 171 (160 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+1.5
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0
Legal risk-0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

30/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-17.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-2.6%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA37 · -2.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA41 · -1.1%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -17.2%
6M RS vs SPY6 · -25.3%
Distance from 52W High62 · -19.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Mastercard demonstrates strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital, supported by solid free cash flow growth and shareholder buybacks. Although the valuation is near fair value, the company's robust financial metrics and market position justify a buy with patience.
Key Risk
A deteriorating narrative trend could signal emerging challenges that may impact Mastercard's growth and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score trend shows meaningful shifts, especially improvements or further deterioration.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.61%5 Year CAGR: 12.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$18,684$17,890$15,254$12,351$12,292$10,277$7,932$8,911$6,727$5,978$4,866$4,385$3,741$4,434$3,166$2,861$1,848$1,518$584$926$745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mastercard IncorporatedFinancial Services

Mastercard Incorporated is a global technology firm specializing in providing transaction processing and a wide array of payment solutions, operating across the United States and internationally. Its core business centers on enabling the entire payment transaction lifecycle – including authorization, clearing, and settlement – alongside offering a spectrum of complementary payment services. The company provides a comprehensive suite of integrated products and value-added services to a diverse clientele, which includes individual account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations. These offerings span programs enabling deferred payment credit, prepaid card management services, commercial credit and debit solutions, and tools for accessing funds in deposit and other accounts. Additionally, Mastercard offers advanced cyber and intelligence solutions designed to secure transactions for all participants, and provides proprietary insights derived from the responsible utilization of consumer and merchant data. For online merchants, its specialized offerings encompass analytics, experimental "test and learn" platforms, consulting, managed services, loyalty programs, payment processing, and secure gateway technologies. The company also operates open banking and digital identity platforms. Its prominent payment solutions are delivered under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus brands. Established in 1966, Mastercard Incorporated is headquartered in Purchase, New York.