Market Pulse59Neutral

Mastercard IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #151(MA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$500.94

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$500.94
Price
$480.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 4%MOS: $384.25

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

31/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $480.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $500.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Mastercard Incorporated (MA) is estimated at $480.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $500.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$480.31
▼ -4.12% downside
20% margin of safety: $384.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
23.76%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.1% premium to price
43
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
55
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 23.8% vs WACC 11.0% (2.2x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
18.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (72nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 211 (200 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
134 news sentiment+2.0
58 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
5 earnings beat+0.2
Legal risk-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

31/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-17.3%
Price vs 21 EMA40 · -1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA37 · -2.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA41 · -1.1%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.5%
6M RS vs SPY10 · -19.3%
Distance from 52W High65 · -17.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Mastercard exhibits strong fundamentals with a high ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital, supported by a robust narrative and solid free cash flow growth. Despite the current valuation being close to fair value, the company's financial health and buyback strategy make it a compelling buy with medium confidence.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the ROIC could decline below the cost of capital, undermining the company's profitability and valuation support.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.61%5 Year CAGR: 12.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$18,684$17,890$15,254$12,351$12,292$10,277$7,932$8,911$6,727$5,978$4,866$4,385$3,741$4,434$3,166$2,861$1,848$1,518$584$926$745

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Mastercard Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Mastercard IncorporatedFinancial Services

Mastercard Incorporated, a technology company, provides transaction processing and other payment-related products and services in the United States and internationally. It facilitates the processing of payment transactions, including authorization, clearing, and settlement, as well as delivers other payment-related products and services. The company offers integrated products and value-added services for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, businesses, governments, and other organizations, such as programs that enable issuers to provide consumers with credits to defer payments; prepaid programs and management services; commercial credit and debit payment products and solutions; and payment products and solutions that allow its customers to access funds in deposit and other accounts. It also provides value-added products and services comprising cyber and intelligence solutions for parties to transact, as well as proprietary insights, drawing on principled use of consumer, and merchant data services. In addition, the company offers analytics, test and learn, consulting, managed services, loyalty, processing, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants. Further, it provides open banking and digital identity platforms services. The company offers payment solutions and services under the MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus. Mastercard Incorporated was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Purchase, New York.