Market Pulse50Neutral

LiveWire Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #275(LVWR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1.39

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1.39
Price
-$6.97
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 601%MOS: -$5.58

Fundamental Score

29/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is estimated at $-6.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of LiveWire Group, Inc. (LVWR) is estimated at $-6.97 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.33%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$6.97
▼ -601.44% downside
20% margin of safety: -$5.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-32.24%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

29/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
601.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-17.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -32.2% vs WACC 8.0% (-4.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
97
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
11.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
83
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (19th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 39%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 4 (4 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 news sentiment+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
LiveWire Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 125.9% below the current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial performance and limited upside potential.
Key Risk
Continued negative spread between ROIC and WACC could further deteriorate shareholder value and financial health.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 27.17%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 73.78%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$50-$50-$86-$70-$76-$65-$50-$62

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates LiveWire Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

LiveWire Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

LiveWire Group, Inc. engages in the manufacturing of electric motorcycles in North America, Europe/Middle East/Africa, and Asia Pacific regions. It offers its products under the LiveWire brand name. The company has strategic partnerships with Harley-Davidson, Inc. and the KYMCO Group. LiveWire Group, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.