Market Pulse50Neutral

Lululemon Athletica Inc.Opportunity Rank #15(LULU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$164.38

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$164.38
Price
$421.78
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 157%MOS: $337.42

Fundamental Score

86/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is estimated at $421.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $164.38, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is estimated at $421.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $164.38, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.61% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$421.78
156.59% upside
20% margin of safety: $337.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.47%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

86/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
156.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
11.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (92nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 168 (149 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
122 news sentiment+2.2
3 margin pressure-0.6
Upgrade headlines+0.3
17 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
2 promotions/discounting+0.1
3 earnings beat+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Lululemon Athletica Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 159% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points and a robust free cash flow yield. The company's improving narrative score further reinforces a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the company's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.61%5 Year CAGR: 17.20%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,283$2,962$2,948$1,605$1,784$1,033$952$969$647$536$441$434$385$373$326$223$134$87$66$38

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lululemon Athletica Inc.Consumer Cyclical

lululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails athletic apparel and accessories for women and men. It operates in two segments, Company-Operated Stores and Direct to Consumer. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for healthy lifestyle and athletic activities, such as yoga, running, and training, as well as other sweaty pursuits. It also provides fitness-related accessories and footwear. The company sells its products through a chain of company-operated stores; outlets and warehouse sales; interactive workout platform; a network of wholesale accounts, such as yoga studios, health clubs, and fitness centers; temporary locations; and license and supply arrangements, as well as directly to consumer through mobile apps and lululemon.com e-commerce website. As of January 30, 2022, it operated 574 company-operated stores under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea, Singapore, France, Malaysia, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.

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