Market Pulse44Neutral

Lululemon Athletica Inc.Opportunity Rank #115(LULU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$116.33

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$116.33
Price
$493.90
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 325%MOS: $395.12

Fundamental Score

89/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is estimated at $493.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $116.33, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.67% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU) is estimated at $493.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $116.33, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.67% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$493.90
324.57% upside
20% margin of safety: $395.12
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.67%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
10.44%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

89/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
324.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 10.4% vs WACC 8.0% (1.3x)
65
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 150 (127 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
9 regulatory scrutiny-0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.2
111 news sentiment+0.2
Downgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat-0.0
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-50.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-34.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-50.4%
Price vs 21 EMA45 · -0.8%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA15 · -5.1%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -34.5%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -50.4%
Distance from 52W High0 · -50.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
BUYConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Lululemon Athletica Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 319% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital. Despite a deteriorating narrative score, the company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective capital management.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative score indicates potential underlying issues that could impact future performance and investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.67%5 Year CAGR: 20.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,592$2,962$2,948$1,605$1,784$1,033$952$969$647$536$441$434$385$373$326$223$134$87$66$38

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lululemon Athletica Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lululemon Athletica Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Lululemon Athletica Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, specializes in the design, global distribution, and retail of athletic apparel and accessories for both women and men. Its business operations are structured into two main divisions: company-owned retail establishments and direct-to-consumer sales. The firm's offerings encompass a range of clothing such as pants, shorts, tops, and jackets, all crafted for promoting a healthy lifestyle and facilitating athletic endeavors. These activities span yoga, running, training, and other physically demanding pursuits. Beyond apparel, Lululemon also supplies fitness-related accessories and a selection of footwear. Customers can acquire Lululemon products through numerous channels. These include a global network of corporate-managed stores, outlet locations, and seasonal warehouse sales. The company also sells through an interactive digital workout platform and via wholesale partnerships with entities like yoga studios, health clubs, and fitness centers. Further sales occur through temporary pop-up shops, as well as various licensing and supply agreements. A significant portion of sales is conducted directly with consumers through dedicated mobile applications and its primary e-commerce website, lululemon.com. By January 30, 2022, Lululemon boasted 574 stores operating under its brand name across numerous international markets. These markets span the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China, Australia, the United Kingdom, Japan, New Zealand, Germany, South Korea, Singapore, France, Malaysia, Sweden, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and Switzerland. Founded in 1998, Lululemon Athletica Inc. maintains its corporate base in Vancouver, Canada.

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