Market Pulse50Neutral

Lockheed Martin CorporationOpportunity Rank #165(LMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$616.25

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$616.25
Price
$702.85
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 14%MOS: $562.28

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $702.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.69% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.40%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) is estimated at $702.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.69% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.40%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$702.85
14.05% upside
20% margin of safety: $562.28
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.98%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
14.1% discount to price
73
FCF Yield
7.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
1.7x net debt to FCF
38
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 210 (199 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
136 news sentiment+1.8
55 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
2 legal risk-0.1
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Lockheed Martin Corporation shows a 15.8% upside based on valuation with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.2%, supported by a stable narrative score of 74. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.69%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,206$10,206$8,657$9,611$9,472$10,743$9,949$8,795$4,416$7,653$6,252$6,040$4,711$5,382$2,503$5,240$4,367$4,025$5,347$5,181$4,676

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lockheed Martin Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lockheed Martin CorporationIndustrials

Lockheed Martin Corporation, a security and aerospace company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services worldwide. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies. The Missiles and Fire Control segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and air-to-ground precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; manned and unmanned ground vehicles; and energy management solutions. The Rotary and Mission Systems segment offers military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems, radar systems, sea and air-based mission and combat systems, command and control mission solutions, cyber solutions, and simulation and training solutions. The Space segment offers satellites; space transportation systems; strategic, advanced strike, and defensive missile systems; and classified systems and services in support of national security systems. This segment also provides network-enabled situational awareness and integrates space and ground-based systems to help its customers gather, analyze, and securely distribute critical intelligence data. It serves primarily serves the U.S. government, as well as foreign military sales contracted through the U.S. government. Lockheed Martin Corporation was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland.

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq