Market Pulse50Neutral

Lemonade, Inc.Opportunity Rank #301(LMND) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$66.87

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$66.87
Price
$11.02
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 84%MOS: $8.82

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $11.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $66.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.44% long-term growth rate and an 11.79% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $11.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $66.87, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.44% long-term growth rate and an 11.79% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$11.02
▼ -83.52% downside
20% margin of safety: $8.82
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.44%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-340.08%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
83.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-0.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -340.1% vs WACC 11.0% (-30.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
133.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
140.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 62 (59 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
52 news sentiment+1.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.8
Analyst upgrades+0.2
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Lemonade, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 83.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong but improving narrative score. However, its fundamentals remain weak with a negative return on invested capital far below its cost of capital.
Key Risk
The company's deeply negative ROIC relative to WACC and poor free cash flow metrics pose substantial risks to its financial sustainability.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to decline to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Follow the narrative score trend for meaningful directional shifts.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 75.68%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 164.35%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
-$7-$7-$2-$110-$153-$135-$87-$75-$40-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lemonade, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lemonade, Inc.Financial Services

Lemonade, Inc. provides various insurance products in the United States and Europe. Its insurance products include stolen or damaged property, and personal liability that protects its customers if they are responsible for an accident or damage to another person or their property. The company also offers renters, homeowners, pet, car, and life insurance products, as well as landlord insurance policies. In addition, it operates as an agent for other insurance companies. The company was formerly known as Lemonade Group, Inc. and changed its name to Lemonade, Inc. Lemonade, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in New York, New York.