Market Pulse44Neutral

Lemonade, Inc.Opportunity Rank #298(LMND) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$57.51

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$57.51
Price
$18.23
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 68%MOS: $14.58

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

27/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $18.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $57.51, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.10% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lemonade, Inc. (LMND) is estimated at $18.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $57.51, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.39% long-term growth rate and an 11.10% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$18.23
-68.30% downside
20% margin of safety: $14.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.39%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-32.37%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -32.4% vs WACC 11.0% (-2.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
164.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 86%Updated: 5m ago
Sources: 39 (35 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+0.3
Regulatory scrutiny-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

27/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-38.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-40.4%
Price vs 21 EMA56 · +1.0%
Price vs 50 EMA46 · -0.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA35 · -1.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -25.2%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -38.2%
Distance from 52W High19 · -40.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Lemonade, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 66% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital. The company's free cash flow yield is minimal, indicating limited financial flexibility.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): 92.88%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 181.54%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$41-$7-$2-$110-$153-$135-$87-$75-$40-$19

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lemonade, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lemonade, Inc.Financial Services

Lemonade, Inc. functions as an insurance provider operating across the United States and Europe, offering a diverse array of policies. Their core coverage options encompass protection against stolen or damaged personal property, as well as personal liability insurance designed to safeguard customers if they are deemed responsible for accidents or harm to others or their assets. Specifically, they provide renters, homeowners, pet, auto, life, and landlord insurance products. Additionally, the company extends its services by acting as an agent for other insurance carriers. Founded in 2015 as Lemonade Group, Inc., the New York-headquartered firm later adopted its current name, Lemonade, Inc.