Market Pulse50Neutral

Eli Lilly and CompanyOpportunity Rank #238(LLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$910.55

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$910.55
Price
$529.30
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 42%MOS: $423.44

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is estimated at $529.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $910.55, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.65% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is estimated at $529.30 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $910.55, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.65% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$529.30
-41.87% downside
20% margin of safety: $423.44
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.65%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
9.34%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
41.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.9% trailing FCF yield
22
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 9.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
42
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (28th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 48m ago
Sources: 207 (200 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
41 regulatory scrutiny+3.4
147 news sentiment+2.3
6 downgrade headlines-0.8
2 legal risk+0.4
Analyst downgrades-0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Eli Lilly and Company is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 43% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score, fundamental metrics indicate a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.65%5 Year CAGR: 21.41%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$24,654$24,654$17,222$11,632$10,571$9,344$8,529$6,190$8,543$7,779$5,943$4,591$6,024$6,828$6,349$8,927$8,044$5,191$8,243$6,237$5,054

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Eli Lilly and Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Eli Lilly and CompanyHealthcare

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.