LLY

$1,020.46

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 4.08% trendline growth.
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$796.93

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$637.54
-37.52% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
8.89%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
45
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
37.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
13
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
40
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
48
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
30.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.
Narrative Score
80
Strong
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: High (92th pct)
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 217 (News 200 · Analyst 17)
Drivers
147 news sentiment+5.3
46 regulatory scrutiny+1.5
4 earnings beat+1.1
Promotions/discounting+0.4
2 legal risk+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Other Metrics
P/E44.4
Profit Margin31.7%
Owner Earnings$29.24b
One Dollar Premise26.00%
Debt/Equity4.33
Current Ratio1.35
PEG-1.853
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024
$3,212$5,054$6,237$8,243$5,191$8,044$8,927$6,349$6,828$6,024$4,591$5,943$7,779$8,543$6,190$8,529$9,344$10,571$11,632$23,104
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Eli Lilly and Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Eli Lilly and CompanyHealthcare

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.