Market Pulse50Neutral

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #315(LITE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$616.09

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$616.09
Price
$47.69
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 92%MOS: $38.15

Fundamental Score

4/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is estimated at $47.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) is estimated at $47.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $616.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$47.69
-92.26% downside
20% margin of safety: $38.15
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.47%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

4/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
92.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.5% vs WACC 11.0% (0.0x)
2
Net Debt / FCF
6.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-5.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (50th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 155 (130 News · 25 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
101 news sentiment+3.7
4 upgrade headlines+0.2
Earnings miss-0.2
19 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
5 earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Lumentum Holdings Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 92% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental profile and returns trailing the cost of capital. Despite a stable but weak narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain substantially below its weighted average cost of capital, potentially leading to continued value erosion.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.12%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -9.48%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$364$357$161$308$551$834$610$496$341$223$169$63$127$87$77

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lumentum Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Technology

Lumentum Holdings Inc. manufactures and sells optical and photonic products in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Optical Communications (OpComms) and Commercial Lasers (Lasers). The OpComms segment offers components, modules, and subsystems that enable the transmission and transport of video, audio, and data over high-capacity fiber optic cables. It offers tunable transponders, transceivers, and transmitter modules; tunable lasers, receivers, and modulators; transport products, such as reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers, amplifiers, and optical channel monitors, as well as components, including 980nm, multi-mode, and Raman pumps; and switches, attenuators, photodetectors, gain flattening filters, isolators, wavelength-division multiplexing filters, arrayed waveguide gratings, multiplex/de-multiplexers, and integrated passive modules. This segment also provides Super Transport Blade, which integrates optical transport functions into a single-slot blade; vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers; directly modulated and electro-absorption modulated lasers; and laser illumination sources for 3D sensing systems. It serves customers in telecommunications, data communications, and consumer and industrial markets. The Commercial Lasers segment offers diode-pumped solid-state, fiber, diode, direct-diode, and gas lasers for use in original equipment manufacturer applications. It serves customers in markets and applications, such as sheet metal processing, general manufacturing, biotechnology, graphics and imaging, remote sensing, and precision machining. Lumentum Holdings Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.