Market Pulse50Neutral

Lucid Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #291(LCID) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$10.31

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$10.31
Price
-$0.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 102%MOS: -$0.13

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-0.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.84% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-0.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $10.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.84% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.16
▼ -101.55% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.13
Years: 10Growth Rate: -73.84%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-46.92%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
101.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-61.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -46.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-4.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.1x net debt to FCF
99
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-78.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (20th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 112 (111 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
105 news sentiment+0.9
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings miss+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 21h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Lucid Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value more than 100% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a moderately improving narrative score, the company's financial health and cash flow metrics remain concerning.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Lucid's poor fundamentals and negative ROIC versus WACC spread may persist or worsen, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • ROIC versus WACC spread showing sustained improvement
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -73.84%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -76.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$2,091-$2,092-$1,136-$1,579-$1,151-$637-$111-$131

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lucid Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lucid Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Lucid Group, Inc. a technology and automotive company, develops electric vehicle (EV) technologies. The company designs, engineers, and builds electric vehicles, EV powertrains, and battery systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operates twenty retail studios in the United States. Lucid Group, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Newark, California.