Market Pulse59Neutral

Lucid Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #325(LCID) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$6.05

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.05
Price
-$0.89
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 115%MOS: -$0.71

Fundamental Score

13/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

26/100
Broken

No change vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-0.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID) is estimated at $-0.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.68% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.89%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$0.89
▼ -114.71% downside
20% margin of safety: -$0.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: -74.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-42.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

13/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
114.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-138.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -42.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-3.9x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-79.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

26/100
Broken
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 189 (183 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
163 news sentiment-1.5
3 earnings miss-1.0
Analyst downgrades-0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.3
2 earnings beat+0.2
3 downgrade headlines-0.2

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-79.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-48.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-72.1%
Price vs 21 EMA9 · -8.8%
Price vs 50 EMA1 · -23.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA0 · -15.6%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -48.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -72.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -79.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Lucid Group, Inc. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 114% below the current price, supported by weak fundamentals and a deteriorating narrative score. The company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in fundamentals and negative returns relative to cost of capital could further depress the stock price.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -74.68%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -78.39%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
-$2,756-$2,092-$1,136-$1,579-$1,151-$637-$111-$131

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Lucid Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Lucid Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Lucid Group, Inc. a technology and automotive company, develops electric vehicle (EV) technologies. The company designs, engineers, and builds electric vehicles, EV powertrains, and battery systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operates twenty retail studios in the United States. Lucid Group, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Newark, California.