Market Pulse53Neutral

The Kroger Co.Opportunity Rank #151(KR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$55.76

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$55.76
Price
$268.65
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 382%MOS: $214.92

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

22/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of The Kroger Co. (KR) is estimated at $268.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.76, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.57% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Kroger Co. (KR) is estimated at $268.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $55.76, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.57% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$268.65
▲ 381.80% upside
20% margin of safety: $214.92
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.57%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
381.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
32.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
1.3x net debt to FCF
52
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (42nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 100 (91 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
78 news sentiment+1.4
3 earnings miss-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Product recall-0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

22/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.3%
Price vs 21 EMA34 · -2.6%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -3.8%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.0%
6M RS vs SPY14 · -16.5%
Distance from 52W High50 · -24.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
The Kroger Co. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 300% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the improving narrative and active buybacks suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is Kroger's return on invested capital remaining substantially below its weighted average cost of capital, which could limit value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.57%5 Year CAGR: 2.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$11,094$9,811$10,692$7,389$8,804$9,680$7,792$7,131$6,222$7,971$8,266$7,046$5,710$5,016$4,556$5,285$5,218$5,045$4,707$4,034

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Kroger Co.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Kroger Co.Consumer Defensive

The Kroger Co. functions as a significant retail entity throughout the United States, encompassing a varied collection of store formats. Its operations include integrated food and drug stores, which stock a broad range of products from natural and organic sections to pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce. The company also runs multi-department stores that broaden their offerings to include apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living goods, electronics, automotive products, and toys. Furthermore, Kroger's marketplace stores blend comprehensive grocery services, pharmacies, health and beauty care, and perishable items with general merchandise such as clothing and household goods. Its price impact warehouse stores, on the other hand, concentrate on providing groceries, health and beauty essentials, meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce at competitive prices. Beyond its retail presence, Kroger is involved in manufacturing and processing food products, which it then sells through its own supermarkets and online platforms. The company also operates 1,613 fuel centers, selling fuel to customers. As of January 29, 2022, The Kroger Co. managed 2,726 supermarkets, operating under numerous brand names across 35 states and the District of Columbia. Established in 1883, the company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.