Market Pulse50Neutral

The Coca-Cola CompanyOpportunity Rank #300(KO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$75.11

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$75.11
Price
$26.41
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 65%MOS: $21.13

Fundamental Score

19/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $26.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $75.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.38% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Coca-Cola Company (KO) is estimated at $26.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $75.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.38% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$26.41
-64.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $21.13
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.76%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

19/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.9% trailing FCF yield
24
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.6x)
29
Net Debt / FCF
3.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (64th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 210 (200 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
148 news sentiment+2.5
47 regulatory scrutiny+1.7
Margin pressure+0.2
Earnings miss-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
The Coca-Cola Company is currently overvalued by approximately 64% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a supportive and stable narrative score. The company's free cash flow yield is modest, and its ROIC is below WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamental weaknesses persist or worsen, preventing any meaningful recovery in valuation or returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.38%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.13%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$9,520$9,520$8,869$13,451$12,502$13,992$11,021$12,525$9,175$8,781$11,058$13,081$13,021$13,092$13,425$12,394$11,747$10,179$9,539$8,798$7,364

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Coca-Cola Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Coca-Cola CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Coca-Cola Company, a beverage company, manufactures, markets, and sells various nonalcoholic beverages worldwide. The company provides sparkling soft drinks, sparkling flavors; water, sports, coffee, and tea; juice, value-added dairy, and plant-based beverages; and other beverages. It also offers beverage concentrates and syrups, as well as fountain syrups to fountain retailers, such as restaurants and convenience stores. The company sells its products under the Coca-Cola, Diet Coke/Coca-Cola Light, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, caffeine free Diet Coke, Cherry Coke, Fanta Orange, Fanta Zero Orange, Fanta Zero Sugar, Fanta Apple, Sprite, Sprite Zero Sugar, Simply Orange, Simply Apple, Simply Grapefruit, Fresca, Schweppes, Thums Up, Aquarius, Ayataka, BODYARMOR, Ciel, Costa, Dasani, dogadan, FUZE TEA, Georgia, glacéau smartwater, glacéau vitaminwater, Gold Peak, Ice Dew, I LOHAS, Powerade, Topo Chico, AdeS, Del Valle, fairlife, innocent, Minute Maid, and Minute Maid Pulpy brands. It operates through a network of independent bottling partners, distributors, wholesalers, and retailers, as well as through bottling and distribution operators. The company was founded in 1886 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.