Market Pulse44Neutral

CarMax, Inc.Opportunity Rank #7(KMX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$52.41

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$52.41
Price
$149.10
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 184%MOS: $119.28

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

86/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is estimated at $149.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.59% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is estimated at $149.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $52.41, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.59% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.22%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$149.10
184.49% upside
20% margin of safety: $119.28
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.61%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
184.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
27.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
3
Net Debt / FCF
9.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (97th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 87%Updated: 36m ago
Sources: 65 (49 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+2.3
3 margin pressure-0.5
Downgrade headlines+0.3
5 earnings beat-0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.3
Promotions/discounting-0.2

Trend Details

86/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+17.9%
Price vs 21 EMA+10.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+6.9%
Price vs 21 EMA92 · +10.2%
Price vs 50 EMA96 · +17.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA90 · +6.9%
3M RS vs SPY85 · +10.4%
6M RS vs SPY87 · +16.7%
Distance from 52W High46 · -26.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
CarMax, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 200% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield and robust buyback activity. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates strong cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score of 70.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which could pressure valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.59%5 Year CAGR: 19.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$2,009$1,092$924$1,706-$2,241$832$95$468$216-$50$167-$658-$303-$543$110$59$73$450$333$329

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CarMax, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CarMax, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

CarMax, Inc., together with its associated entities, functions as a prominent purveyor of previously owned automobiles across the United States. Its business operations are strategically structured into two principal divisions: CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. Through its retail offerings, the company provides an extensive selection of pre-owned vehicles, including various domestic, imported, and luxury models, in addition to hybrid and electric options. Customers also have the opportunity to purchase extended protection plans at the time of their vehicle acquisition. Separately, CarMax sells older, higher-mileage vehicles—typically around ten years old with over 100,000 miles—via wholesale auctions. Furthermore, CarMax delivers reconditioning and repair services for its vehicles. For its retail clients, the company facilitates a range of financing alternatives designed to accommodate diverse credit profiles, managed both by its internal CarMax Auto Finance segment and through arrangements with various external financial institutions. As of February 28, 2022, CarMax operated a network comprising approximately 230 retail locations specializing in used cars. Founded in 1993, CarMax, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Richmond, Virginia.

CarMax, Inc. (KMX) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq