Market Pulse50Neutral

CarMax, Inc.Opportunity Rank #145(KMX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$42.89

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$42.89
Price
$268.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 526%MOS: $214.90

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is estimated at $268.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.99% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CarMax, Inc. (KMX) is estimated at $268.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $42.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.99% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$268.62
526.30% upside
20% margin of safety: $214.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.55%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
526.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
48.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
3
Net Debt / FCF
5.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
99.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (33rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 84%Updated: 37m ago
Sources: 39 (34 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
24 news sentiment+0.3
2 legal risk-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
CarMax, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 550% above its current price, supported by strong free cash flow growth and constructive fundamentals. However, returns are currently trailing the cost of capital, and leverage is elevated, warranting cautious observation.
Key Risk
The key risk is that CarMax's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could impair value creation despite favorable valuation metrics.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.99%5 Year CAGR: 29.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,020$1,092$924$1,706-$2,241$832$95$468$216-$50$167-$658-$303-$543$110$59$73$450$333$329$317

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CarMax, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CarMax, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

CarMax, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer of used vehicles in the United States. The company operates through two segments, CarMax Sales Operations and CarMax Auto Finance. It offers customers a range of makes and models of used vehicles, including domestic, imported, and luxury vehicles, as well as hybrid and electric vehicles; and extended protection plans to customers at the time of sale, as well as sells vehicles that are approximately 10 years old and has more than 100,000 miles through wholesale auctions. The company also provides reconditioning and vehicle repair services; and financing alternatives for retail customers across a range of credit spectrum through its CarMax Auto Finance and arrangements with various financial institutions. As of February 28, 2022, it operated approximately 230 used car stores. CarMax, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Richmond, Virginia.