Market Pulse50Neutral

Klarna Group plcOpportunity Rank #309(KLAR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$14.62

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$14.62
Price
$4.81
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 67%MOS: $3.85

Fundamental Score

5/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Klarna Group plc (KLAR) is estimated at $4.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -60.03% long-term growth rate and a 13.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Klarna Group plc (KLAR) is estimated at $4.81 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $14.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -60.03% long-term growth rate and a 13.53% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.81
▼ -67.10% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: -60.03%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-13.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

5/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
67.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-18.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -13.8% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.4x net debt to FCF
18
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-75.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 206 (200 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment+0.8
144 legal risk+0.2
Earnings miss-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
10 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Klarna Group plc is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 389% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. The company’s returns are substantially trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is continued deterioration in operational performance leading to further value destruction and investor losses.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend or score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -60.03%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -72.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
-$1,016-$1,029$632$893$441-$338$206-$883$88-$313$50

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Klarna Group plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Klarna Group plcTechnology

Klarna Group plc operates as a technology-driven payments company in the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, Sweden, and internationally. The company offers advertising and marketing solutions, consumer services, digital financial services, and personal shopping and money assistance services. In addition, it provides digital retail banking solutions, such as fixed-term deposits, savings, and bank accounts; digital loyalty cards; and customer and merchant support services, as well as manages personal finances. Klarna Group plc was formerly known as Klarna UK II plc and changed its name to Klarna Group plc in December 2023. The company was founded in 2005 and is based in London, United Kingdom.