Market Pulse53Neutral

Klarna Group plcOpportunity Rank #297(KLAR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$17.58

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$17.58
Price
$4.36
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 75%MOS: $3.49

Fundamental Score

14/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Klarna Group plc (KLAR) is estimated at $4.36 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -68.34% long-term growth rate and a 13.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Klarna Group plc (KLAR) is estimated at $4.36 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $17.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -68.34% long-term growth rate and a 13.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$4.36
▼ -75.20% downside
20% margin of safety: $3.49
Years: 10Growth Rate: -68.34%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-13.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

14/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
75.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-38.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -13.8% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.0x net debt to FCF
59
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-79.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (88th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 71 (59 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
50 news sentiment+1.0
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
Legal risk-0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-241 daily bars used
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Klarna Group plc is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value nearly 94% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's negative return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital may persist, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -68.34%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -78.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
-$2,566-$1,029$632$893$441-$338$206-$883$88-$313$50

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Klarna Group plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Klarna Group plcFinancial Services

Klarna Group plc operates as a technology-driven payments provider, extending its services across the United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Sweden, and globally. The company offers a wide array of solutions, including advertising and marketing, various consumer-centric provisions, advanced digital financial products, and assistance with personal shopping and money management. Furthermore, Klarna delivers digital retail banking services, encompassing fixed-term deposits, savings accounts, and traditional bank accounts, alongside digital loyalty programs, comprehensive support for both customers and merchants, and tools for organizing personal finances. Previously known as Klarna UK II plc, the company officially adopted the name Klarna Group plc in December 2023. Established in 2005, its main operational base is located in London, United Kingdom.