Market Pulse59Neutral

The Kraft Heinz CompanyOpportunity Rank #129(KHC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$23.64

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$23.64
Price
$65.49
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 177%MOS: $52.39

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

-5 vs previous

Trend Score

49/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is estimated at $65.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.64, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.61%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is estimated at $65.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $23.64, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.61%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$65.49
▲ 177.03% upside
20% margin of safety: $52.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.93%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
177.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.9% vs WACC 9.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
8
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
-5 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (93rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 91 (82 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
69 news sentiment+2.1
Demand slowdown-0.5
3 earnings beat-0.2
8 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

49/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.6%
Price vs 21 EMA79 · +5.5%
Price vs 50 EMA72 · +4.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA45 · -0.6%
3M RS vs SPY17 · -9.6%
6M RS vs SPY26 · -9.6%
Distance from 52W High66 · -17.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 42%
Thesis
The Kraft Heinz Company is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 186% above its current price, supported by a strong and improving narrative score. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a negative ROIC spread.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's sustained inability to generate returns above its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine valuation gains.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.08%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.25%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$5,551$5,263$5,208$4,989$3,385$6,269$5,525$4,320$3,400$1,744$6,485$3,115$2,555$2,600$3,475$3,065$1,276

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Kraft Heinz CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Kraft Heinz Company, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets food and beverage products in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include condiments and sauces, cheese and dairy products, meals, meats, refreshment beverages, coffee, and other grocery products. The company also offers dressings, healthy snacks, and other categories; and spices and other seasonings. It sells its products through its own sales organizations, as well as through independent brokers, agents, and distributors to chain, wholesale, cooperative and independent grocery accounts, convenience stores, drug stores, value stores, bakeries, pharmacies, mass merchants, club stores, and foodservice distributors and institutions, including hotels, restaurants, hospitals, health care facilities, and government agencies; and online through various e-commerce platforms and retailers. The company was formerly known as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation and changed its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. The Kraft Heinz Company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.