Market Pulse53Neutral

The Kraft Heinz CompanyOpportunity Rank #107(KHC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$25.86

Last updated: Jul 21, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$25.86
Price
$64.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 148%MOS: $51.22

Fundamental Score

43/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

73/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-20

The intrinsic value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is estimated at $64.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $25.86, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) is estimated at $64.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $25.86, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$64.02
147.56% upside
20% margin of safety: $51.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.51%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

43/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
147.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.5% vs WACC 9.0% (-0.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 11h ago
Sources: 45 (38 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
32 news sentiment+0.5
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

73/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-20308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+10.6%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-10.6%
Price vs 21 EMA74 · +4.2%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA72 · +2.9%
3M RS vs SPY85 · +10.6%
6M RS vs SPY49 · -0.5%
Distance from 52W High79 · -10.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
The Kraft Heinz Company is currently undervalued with an estimated fair value 175% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 19.5%. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a negative ROIC spread.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns on invested capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.08%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.25%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010
$5,551$5,263$5,208$4,989$3,385$6,269$5,525$4,320$3,400$1,744$6,485$3,115$2,555$2,600$3,475$3,065$1,276

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Kraft Heinz Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Kraft Heinz CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Kraft Heinz Company, along with its subsidiaries, operates as a global entity focused on the manufacturing and marketing of a broad spectrum of food and beverage products. Its reach extends across key markets such as the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, as well as numerous other international territories. The company's diverse product offerings include popular condiments and sauces, a variety of cheese and dairy items, prepared meals, meat products, and refreshing beverages. Additionally, its portfolio features coffee, an assortment of healthy snacks, salad dressings, various spices and seasonings, and a range of other general grocery staples. Kraft Heinz employs a multi-faceted distribution strategy. It utilizes its internal sales organizations alongside independent brokers, agents, and third-party distributors to reach a wide array of customers. These include large grocery chains, wholesale providers, cooperative and independent grocers, convenience stores, pharmacies, value stores, bakeries, mass merchandisers, and club stores. Furthermore, the company supplies products to the foodservice sector and institutional clients, such as hotels, restaurants, hospitals, healthcare facilities, and government agencies. A significant portion of its sales also occurs online through various e-commerce platforms and digital retailers. Tracing its origins back to its founding in 1869, the company initially operated as H.J. Heinz Holding Corporation before officially changing its name to The Kraft Heinz Company in July 2015. Its corporate headquarters are located in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.