Market Pulse50Neutral

Joby Aviation, Inc.Opportunity Rank #331(JOBY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$9.28

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$9.28
Price
$1.31
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $1.05

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) is estimated at $1.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -65.61% long-term growth rate and a 12.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) is estimated at $1.31 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $9.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -65.61% long-term growth rate and a 12.11% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.31
▼ -85.88% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: -65.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-254.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
85.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-5.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -254.8% vs WACC 7.0% (-36.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
3.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-69.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 46m ago
Sources: 94 (91 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
82 news sentiment+0.7
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 legal risk-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Joby Aviation, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 85.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor capital efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company’s severely negative ROIC relative to its WACC, which suggests ongoing value destruction if not corrected.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -65.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -67.92%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
-$457-$456-$396-$283-$181-$163-$83

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Joby Aviation, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Joby Aviation, Inc.Industrials

Joby Aviation, Inc., a vertically integrated air mobility company, engages in building an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft optimized to deliver air transportation as a service. It intends to build an aerial ridesharing service. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Santa Cruz, California.