Market Pulse53Neutral

Joby Aviation, Inc.Opportunity Rank #326(JOBY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$7.54

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$7.54
Price
$1.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 78%MOS: $1.30

Fundamental Score

3/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

7/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) is estimated at $1.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -65.29% long-term growth rate and an 11.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Joby Aviation, Inc. (JOBY) is estimated at $1.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $7.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -65.29% long-term growth rate and an 11.06% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.63
▼ -78.38% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.30
Years: 10Growth Rate: -65.29%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-150.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

3/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
78.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-5.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -150.7% vs WACC 8.0% (-18.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-68.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (72nd pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 61 (57 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
49 news sentiment+0.7
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

7/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-66.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-59.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-21.2%
Price vs 21 EMA3 · -13.5%
Price vs 50 EMA1 · -21.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA4 · -8.9%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -22.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -59.6%
Distance from 52W High0 · -66.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Joby Aviation, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price 81.3% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative free cash flow yield. Despite a stable and improving narrative score, the company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's sustained negative return on invested capital far below its weighted average cost of capital, which could further deteriorate valuation and financial stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -65.29%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -67.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020
-$427-$456-$396-$283-$181-$163-$83

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Joby Aviation, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Joby Aviation, Inc.Industrials

Joby Aviation, Inc. is a vertically integrated air mobility firm specializing in the development of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. These innovative vehicles are designed to provide on-demand air transportation, with the ultimate aim of launching an aerial ridesharing service. The company was founded in 2009 and operates from its headquarters in Santa Cruz, California.