Market Pulse50Neutral

Johnson & JohnsonOpportunity Rank #209(JNJ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$235.42

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$235.42
Price
$199.69
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 15%MOS: $159.75

Fundamental Score

42/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $199.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $235.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.31% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.29%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $199.69 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $235.42, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.31% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.29%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$199.69
▼ -15.18% downside
20% margin of safety: $159.75
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.31%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

42/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.2% premium to price
25
FCF Yield
5.2% trailing FCF yield
79
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
81
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
110 news sentiment+3.0
81 regulatory scrutiny+2.8
6 legal risk+0.1
Macro headwinds+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Johnson & Johnson's fundamentals are weak with returns trailing its cost of capital, and its shares appear fully priced with a negative upside to fair value. Despite a supportive narrative score, the overall outlook suggests limited investment appeal at current prices.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.31%5 Year CAGR: 1.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320232022202120192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$29,362$29,362$28,690$25,203$27,334$27,062$26,883$26,914$25,871$24,335$21,993$22,742$22,185$21,009$18,330$17,191$18,769$18,936$18,038$18,559$16,986

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Johnson & JohnsonHealthcare

Johnson & Johnson, together with its subsidiaries, researches and develops, manufactures, and sells various products in the healthcare field worldwide, but strategically separated its Consumer Health business into Kenvue Inc. in 2023 to focus on its higher-growth, innovation-driven segments; the former Consumer Health brands (including TYLENOL, LISTERINE, and BAND-AID) are now owned by Kenvue. The company's core focus is now split between its Innovative Medicine (formerly Pharmaceutical) segment, which offers prescription products for complex diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, various cancers, HIV/AIDS, and neurodegenerative disorders; and its MedTech (Medical Devices) segment, which provides advanced technology solutions including electrophysiology products, neurovascular care products, orthopaedics (hips, knees, spine), advanced surgery solutions, and disposable contact lenses under the ACUVUE brand. Company's two remaining segments primarily serve hospitals, healthcare professionals, wholesalers, and retailers, continuing its mission of advancing human health since its founding in 1886 and its current basing in New Brunswick, New Jersey.