Market Pulse57Neutral

Johnson & JohnsonOpportunity Rank #216(JNJ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$253.85

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$253.85
Price
$186.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 27%MOS: $148.96

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

+12 vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $186.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $253.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.25%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $186.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $253.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.25%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$186.20
▼ -26.65% downside
20% margin of safety: $148.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
26.6% premium to price
6
FCF Yield
4.6% trailing FCF yield
64
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
55
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Pressure from: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
+12 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 207 (200 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
165 news sentiment+1.7
30 regulatory scrutiny+1.3
Earnings beat+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
3 legal risk+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-5.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.4%
Price vs 21 EMA57 · +1.2%
Price vs 50 EMA71 · +4.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA75 · +3.4%
3M RS vs SPY38 · -2.9%
6M RS vs SPY85 · +15.9%
Distance from 52W High90 · -5.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Johnson & Johnson shares appear fully priced with a fair value below the current price, and fundamentals are weak as returns trail the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score, the overall outlook suggests limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.26%5 Year CAGR: 0.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320232022202120192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$27,942$29,362$28,690$25,203$27,334$27,062$26,883$26,914$25,871$24,335$21,993$22,742$22,185$21,009$18,330$17,191$18,769$18,936$18,038$18,559$16,986

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Johnson & JohnsonHealthcare

Johnson & Johnson is a holding company, which engages in the research, development, manufacture, and sale of products in the healthcare field. It operates through the Innovative Medicine and MedTech segments. The Innovative Medicine segment focuses on immunology, infectious diseases, neuroscience, oncology, cardiovascular and metabolism, and pulmonary hypertension. The MedTech segment includes a portfolio of products used in interventional solutions, orthopaedics, surgery, and vision categories. The company was founded by Robert Wood Johnson I, James Wood Johnson, and Edward Mead Johnson Sr. in 1887 and is headquartered in New Brunswick, NJ.