Market Pulse44Neutral

Johnson & JohnsonOpportunity Rank #232(JNJ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$231.29

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$231.29
Price
$186.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 19%MOS: $148.96

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

44/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $186.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $231.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is estimated at $186.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $231.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$186.20
-19.50% downside
20% margin of safety: $148.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
19.5% premium to price
18
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
75
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
1.2x net debt to FCF
55
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 206 (200 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
156 news sentiment+1.8
36 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
7 legal risk+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

44/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-6.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-0.9%
Price vs 21 EMA48 · -0.4%
Price vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA52 · +0.2%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.5%
6M RS vs SPY47 · -0.9%
Distance from 52W High86 · -6.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Johnson & Johnson shares appear fully priced with a fair value below the current price, and fundamentals are weak as returns trail the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score, the overall outlook suggests limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.26%5 Year CAGR: 0.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320232022202120192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$27,942$29,362$28,690$25,203$27,334$27,062$26,883$26,914$25,871$24,335$21,993$22,742$22,185$21,009$18,330$17,191$18,769$18,936$18,038$18,559$16,986

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Johnson & Johnson's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Johnson & JohnsonHealthcare

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates globally, engaging in the research, development, production, and distribution of a diverse range of healthcare products. In a pivotal strategic move in 2023, the company divested its Consumer Health division, establishing it as the independent entity Kenvue Inc. This separation was implemented to allow J&J to sharpen its focus on higher-growth, innovation-led areas. Consequently, well-known consumer brands like TYLENOL, LISTERINE, and BAND-AID are now part of Kenvue's portfolio. Johnson & Johnson's current operations are centered around two primary divisions: Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment, formerly known as Pharmaceuticals, specializes in prescription drugs designed to treat complex ailments such as rheumatoid arthritis, various forms of cancer, HIV/AIDS, and neurodegenerative disorders. Its MedTech division, encompassing Medical Devices, delivers cutting-edge technological solutions, including electrophysiology equipment, neurovascular care products, orthopaedic implants for hips, knees, and spine, advanced surgical technologies, and ACUVUE brand disposable contact lenses. These two streamlined segments primarily cater to a client base comprising hospitals, medical professionals, wholesale distributors, and retail outlets. From its headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey, Johnson & Johnson continues to uphold its enduring mission of advancing human health, a commitment it has maintained since its founding in 1886.