Market Pulse44Neutral

JD.com, Inc.Opportunity Rank #132(JD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$27.02

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$27.02
Price
$89.66
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 232%MOS: $71.73

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

-3 vs previous

Trend Score

21/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of JD.com, Inc. (JD) is estimated at $89.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of JD.com, Inc. (JD) is estimated at $89.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$89.66
231.83% upside
20% margin of safety: $71.73
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.49%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
231.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.5% vs WACC 10.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (9th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 56 (49 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
38 news sentiment+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.1
6 legal risk-0.0
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

21/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-15.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-8.0%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.4%
Price vs 50 EMA16 · -8.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA36 · -1.8%
3M RS vs SPY7 · -15.7%
6M RS vs SPY14 · -16.4%
Distance from 52W High49 · -25.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
JD.com, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 251% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong buyback activity and stable narrative trend suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.24%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -6.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$4,896$4,896$10,612$11,737$11,776$8,982$7,410$4,176$6,235$5,339$1,952$515$578$717$377$79

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates JD.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

JD.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

JD.com, Inc. is a prominent technology and service provider based in the People's Republic of China, distinguished by its robust, supply chain-centric operations. The company's retail segment offers a comprehensive array of products. This includes computing devices, communication equipment, and various consumer electronics, alongside a broad selection of home appliances. Beyond these, JD.com provides an extensive general merchandise category, covering everything from groceries (food, beverages, fresh produce) and daily essentials (baby and maternity items, furniture, household goods, personal care, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, health products) to specialized goods (industrial products, books, automotive accessories, apparel, footwear, bags, and jewelry). Additionally, the firm extends a variety of services, such as hosting an online marketplace for external vendors, delivering marketing solutions, providing omni-channel retail strategies for both consumers and traditional brick-and-mortar stores, and offering online healthcare services. JD.com also plays a significant role in infrastructure, developing, owning, and managing its own logistics facilities and other real estate assets. These capabilities not only support its internal operations but also serve third parties through asset management services, an integrated service platform, and the leasing and management of storage facilities. Beyond consumer and retail services, the company offers integrated industry solutions encompassing data analytics, technology, business operations, and user management, all designed to facilitate the digital transformation of various enterprises and institutions. It also delivers advanced, technology-driven supply chain and logistics services. Incorporated in 2006, JD.com, Inc. is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. until it officially changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014.