Market Pulse50Neutral

JD.com, Inc.Opportunity Rank #64(JD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$27.54

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$27.54
Price
$99.41
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 261%MOS: $79.53

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

53/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of JD.com, Inc. (JD) is estimated at $99.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.18% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of JD.com, Inc. (JD) is estimated at $99.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $27.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.18% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$99.41
260.97% upside
20% margin of safety: $79.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.18%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
261.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.5% vs WACC 10.0% (0.7x)
33
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
52
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

53/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (20th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 60 (56 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
50 news sentiment+0.4
6 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
JD.com, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 315% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 13.9%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and stable narrative trend suggest potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.18%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -3.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20242023202220212020201920182017201620152014201320122011
$5,362$10,448$11,556$11,594$8,843$7,296$4,111$6,139$5,256$1,922$507$569$706$371$78

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates JD.com, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

JD.com, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

JD.com, Inc. operates as a supply chain-based technology and service provider in the People's Republic of China. The company offers computers, communication, and consumer electronics products, as well as home appliances; and general merchandise products comprising food, beverage and fresh produce, baby and maternity products, furniture and household goods, cosmetics and other personal care items, pharmaceutical and healthcare products, industrial products, books, automobile accessories, apparel and footwear, bags, and jewelry. It also provides online marketplace services for third-party merchants; marketing services; and omni-channel solutions to customers and offline retailers, as well as online healthcare services. In addition, the company develops, owns, and manages its logistics facilities and other real estate properties to support third parties; offers asset management services and integrated service platform; leasing of storage facilities and related management services; and engages in online retail business. Further, it provides integrated data, technology, business, and user management industry solutions to support the digitization of enterprises and institutions; and technology-driven supply chain solutions and logistics services. The company was formerly known as 360buy Jingdong Inc. and changed its name to JD.com, Inc. in January 2014. JD.com, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.