Market Pulse50Neutral

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.Opportunity Rank #50(JBSS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$76.78

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$76.78
Price
$224.41
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 192%MOS: $179.53

Fundamental Score

76/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) is estimated at $224.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.78, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.77%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (JBSS) is estimated at $224.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.78, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.70% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.77%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$224.41
192.28% upside
20% margin of safety: $179.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.70%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

76/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
192.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
26
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (14th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 55%Updated: 43m ago
Sources: 10 (9 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 news sentiment+0.1
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 200% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score and a healthy free cash flow yield of 19.8%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company shows promising cash flow growth and a solid valuation discount.
Key Risk
The company’s return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.70%5 Year CAGR: 6.48%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$178$81$130$145$37$130$79$99$79$64$104$28$22$43$23$12$51$49$41$59$51

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc.Consumer Defensive

John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc., through its subsidiary, JBSS Ventures, LLC, processes and distributes tree nuts and peanuts in the United States. The company offers raw and processed nuts, including almonds, pecans, peanuts, black walnuts, English walnuts, cashews, macadamia nuts, pistachios, pine nuts, Brazil nuts, and filberts in various styles and seasonings. It also offers peanut butter in various sizes and varieties; snack and trail mixes, salad toppings, snacks, snack bites, dried fruit, and chocolate and yogurt coated products; baking ingredients; bulk food products; sunflower kernels, pepitas, almond and cashew butter, candy and confections, corn snacks, chickpea snacks, sesame sticks, and other sesame snack products; and various toppings for ice cream and yogurt. In addition, the company operates a retail store. The company provides its products under the Fisher, Orchard Valley Harvest, Squirrel Brand, and Southern Style Nuts brands, as well as under various private brands. It serves retailers and wholesalers, and commercial ingredient and contract packaging customers through a network of independent brokers, distributors, and suppliers. John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. was founded in 1922 and is headquartered in Elgin, Illinois.