Market Pulse44Neutral

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Opportunity Rank #292(ISRG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$402.95

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$402.95
Price
$183.36
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 54%MOS: $146.69

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

16/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $183.36 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $402.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.32% long-term growth rate and a 10.43% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $183.36 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $402.95, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.32% long-term growth rate and a 10.43% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$183.36
▼ -54.50% downside
20% margin of safety: $146.69
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.32%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
18
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.1% vs WACC 7.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
16.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 24m ago
Sources: 82 (71 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
61 news sentiment+1.3
3 upgrade headlines+0.5
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

16/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-38.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-7.5%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.6%
Price vs 50 EMA17 · -7.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -4.0%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -30.5%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -38.5%
Distance from 52W High36 · -32.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 66%
Thesis
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 54% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a strong balance sheet with net cash, the company's fundamentals and narrative indicate a neutral to broken outlook with no immediate catalysts for improvement.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction if this trend continues.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.32%5 Year CAGR: 9.74%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,887$3,570$3,526$2,878$2,023$2,443$1,826$2,024$1,357$1,335$1,097$853$771$985$956$761$624$438$384$230$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Healthcare

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is a leading medical technology firm dedicated to advancing patient care by developing, producing, and commercializing sophisticated tools. These innovations empower medical professionals to deliver superior, accessible, and less-invasive treatment options to patients both within the United States and across international markets. Its flagship offering, the da Vinci Surgical System, facilitates intricate operations through a minimally disruptive approach. Expanding beyond surgical applications, the company also provides the Ion endoluminal system, designed for diagnostic interventions like minimally invasive lung biopsies. Complementing its primary systems, Intuitive Surgical supplies a comprehensive array of instruments, including stapling tools, energy devices, and essential core components. Furthermore, it offers structured training programs to ensure proficient use of its technology, alongside extensive customer support services encompassing installation, repairs, and ongoing maintenance. The firm also integrates digital capabilities to deliver unified, connected solutions that optimize hospital performance through actionable insights. Established in 1995, Intuitive Surgical maintains its corporate headquarters in Sunnyvale, California.