Market Pulse50Neutral

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Opportunity Rank #226(ISRG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$478.04

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$478.04
Price
$158.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 67%MOS: $126.78

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $158.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $478.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.27% long-term growth rate and an 11.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (ISRG) is estimated at $158.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $478.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.27% long-term growth rate and an 11.13% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$158.48
▼ -66.85% downside
20% margin of safety: $126.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.1% trailing FCF yield
3
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.7x)
37
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
97
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (89th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 99%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 131 (118 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 regulatory scrutiny+2.8
73 news sentiment+1.6
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 59%
Thesis
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 66% relative to its estimated fair value, with returns trailing its cost of capital despite a strong narrative score and a solid balance sheet. The company's fundamentals show bearish signals, including a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, suggesting limited upside at current prices.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify the current high valuation, leading to further price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC vs WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.27%5 Year CAGR: 7.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,570$3,570$3,526$2,878$2,023$2,443$1,826$2,024$1,357$1,335$1,097$853$771$985$956$761$624$438$384$230$118

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intuitive Surgical, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intuitive Surgical, Inc.Healthcare

Intuitive Surgical, Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets products that enable physicians and healthcare providers to enhance the quality of and access to minimally invasive care in the United States and internationally. The company offers the da Vinci Surgical System to enable complex surgery using a minimally invasive approach; and Ion endoluminal system, which extends its commercial offerings beyond surgery into diagnostic procedures enabling minimally invasive biopsies in the lung. It also provides a suite of stapling, energy, and core instrumentation for its surgical systems; progressive learning pathways to support the use of its technology; a complement of services to its customers, including support, installation, repair, and maintenance; and integrated digital capabilities providing unified and connected offerings, streamlining performance for hospitals with program-enhancing insights. The company was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California.