Market Pulse46Neutral

IREN LimitedOpportunity Rank #121(IREN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$41.14

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$41.14
Price
$294.07
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 615%MOS: $235.26

Fundamental Score

71/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

-4 vs previous

Trend Score

17/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of IREN Limited (IREN) is estimated at $294.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $41.14, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of IREN Limited (IREN) is estimated at $294.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $41.14, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.27% long-term growth rate and a 9.90% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$294.07
▲ 614.80% upside
20% margin of safety: $235.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.27%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

71/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
614.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
19.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
90
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
286.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
-4 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (40th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 85%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 98 (88 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
79 news sentiment+1.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.2
6 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

17/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA-18.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-14.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-46.2%
Price vs 21 EMA2 · -14.1%
Price vs 50 EMA2 · -18.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA15 · -5.1%
3M RS vs SPY50 · -0.0%
6M RS vs SPY16 · -15.2%
Distance from 52W High8 · -46.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
IREN Limited is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 218% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a bullish narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows promising free cash flow growth and a supportive narrative trend.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) remaining below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 62.58%5 Year CAGR: 235.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$2,874$1,619$532$122$316$7$3$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates IREN Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

IREN LimitedFinancial Services

IREN Limited, established in 2018 and based in Sydney, Australia, operates a comprehensive, vertically integrated data center business spanning Australia and Canada. The company possesses and manages all essential infrastructure, including its computing hardware, electrical systems, and the data center facilities themselves. A primary undertaking for IREN Limited is the mining of Bitcoin, a scarce digital asset created and exchanged via a decentralized, peer-to-peer computer network utilizing specialized Bitcoin software. The company was previously named Iris Energy Limited, officially adopting IREN Limited in November 2024.