Market Pulse59Neutral

Intel CorporationOpportunity Rank #200(INTC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$109.62

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.62
Price
$47.53
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 57%MOS: $38.02

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

100/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Intel Corporation (INTC) is estimated at $47.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intel Corporation (INTC) is estimated at $47.53 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.41% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$47.53
▼ -56.64% downside
20% margin of safety: $38.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.58%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
56.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
55
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-8.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (88th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 226 (200 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
164 news sentiment+14.1
23 regulatory scrutiny+1.7
4 upgrade headlines+0.9
4 earnings beat+0.3
3 analyst upgrades+0.3
2 downgrade headlines-0.1

Trend Details

100/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+78.4%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+140.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+216.6%
Price vs 21 EMA100 · +42.4%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +78.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA100 · +25.3%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +140.1%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +216.6%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Intel Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price 54.8% above estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative but weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to cost of capital. The company's fundamentals are bearish, with declining free cash flow growth and a negative ROIC spread, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Intel's operational performance and returns on invested capital do not improve, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.58%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -8.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$23,079$24,343$32,232$37,221$40,483$49,785$49,837$49,358$44,613$33,888$31,433$26,463$30,615$31,523$30,726$31,727$21,899$15,685$16,123$17,625$16,399

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intel Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intel CorporationTechnology

Intel Corporation engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of computer products and technologies worldwide. The company operates through CCG, DCG, IOTG, Mobileye, NSG, PSG, and All Other segments. It offers platform products, such as central processing units and chipsets, and system-on-chip and multichip packages; and non-platform or adjacent products, including accelerators, boards and systems, connectivity products, graphics, and memory and storage products. The company also provides high-performance compute solutions for targeted verticals and embedded applications for retail, industrial, and healthcare markets; and solutions for assisted and autonomous driving comprising compute platforms, computer vision and machine learning-based sensing, mapping and localization, driving policy, and active sensors. In addition, it offers workload-optimized platforms and related products for cloud service providers, enterprise and government, and communications service providers. The company serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and cloud service providers. Intel Corporation has a strategic partnership with MILA to develop and apply advances in artificial intelligence methods for enhancing the search in the space of drugs. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.