Market Pulse44Neutral

Intel CorporationOpportunity Rank #200(INTC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$140.94

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$140.94
Price
$46.67
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 67%MOS: $37.34

Fundamental Score

17/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

100/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Intel Corporation (INTC) is estimated at $46.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intel Corporation (INTC) is estimated at $46.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.94, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$46.67
-66.89% downside
20% margin of safety: $37.34
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.58%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

17/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.3% trailing FCF yield
31
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-8.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 235 (200 News · 35 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
175 news sentiment+10.3
12 upgrade headlines+1.4
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
4 analyst upgrades+0.1
Margin pressure+0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0

Trend Details

100/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+206.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+280.1%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
Price vs 21 EMA99 · +19.6%
Price vs 50 EMA100 · +36.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA99 · +14.4%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +206.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +280.1%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Intel Corporation is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 53.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score of 21 and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative score of 80, the company's financial performance and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued underperformance of Intel's returns on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor if the stock price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to the estimated fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Observe the narrative score trend for any meaningful directional shifts.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.58%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -8.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$23,079$24,343$32,232$37,221$40,483$49,785$49,837$49,358$44,613$33,888$31,433$26,463$30,615$31,523$30,726$31,727$21,899$15,685$16,123$17,625$16,399

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intel Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intel CorporationTechnology

Intel Corporation is a global leader specializing in the development, production, and distribution of advanced computing technologies and products. The company manages its diverse operations through various segments, including CCG, DCG, IOTG, Mobileye, NSG, PSG, and others. Its comprehensive product line features fundamental platform components such as central processing units (CPUs), chipsets, system-on-chip solutions, and multi-chip packages. Additionally, Intel supplies an array of non-platform and adjacent products, including accelerators, integrated boards and systems, connectivity products, graphics processors, and memory and storage solutions. Beyond core components, Intel provides high-performance computing solutions customized for specific industries like retail, industrial, and healthcare, as well as for embedded applications. Their automotive contributions support assisted and autonomous driving with advanced compute platforms, computer vision and machine learning-based sensing, mapping and localization tools, driving policy software, and active sensors. The company also offers platforms optimized for specific workloads, catering to cloud service providers, enterprise and government clients, and communications service providers. Intel's clientele comprises original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), original design manufacturers (ODMs), and cloud service providers. Demonstrating a dedication to cutting-edge research, Intel Corporation has a strategic alliance with MILA to leverage artificial intelligence for breakthroughs in drug discovery. Established in 1968, Intel Corporation is based in Santa Clara, California.

Intel Corporation (INTC) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq