Market Pulse46Neutral

Intel Corp.Opportunity Rank #239(INTC) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$109.84

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.84
Price
$47.52
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 57%MOS: $38.02

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

68/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Intel Corp. (INTC) is estimated at $47.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Intel Corp. (INTC) is estimated at $47.52 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.84, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and an 11.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$47.52
▼ -56.74% downside
20% margin of safety: $38.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.58%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
56.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
55
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-8.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
-1 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 233 (200 News · 33 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
177 news sentiment+4.4
Downgrade headlines+0.5
Legal risk+0.4
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
5 analyst upgrades+0.1
Margin pressure+0.0

Trend Details

68/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+66.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+148.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+8.1%
Price vs 21 EMA10 · -8.4%
Price vs 50 EMA45 · -1.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA93 · +8.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +66.9%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +148.2%
Distance from 52W High56 · -22.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Intel Corporation is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 53.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score of 21 and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative score of 80, the company's financial performance and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued underperformance of Intel's returns on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor if the stock price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to the estimated fair value.
  • Track the spread between ROIC and WACC for signs of sustained improvement.
  • Observe the narrative score trend for any meaningful directional shifts.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.58%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -8.73%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$23,079$24,343$32,232$37,221$40,483$49,785$49,837$49,358$44,613$33,888$31,433$26,463$30,615$31,523$30,726$31,727$21,899$15,685$16,123$17,625$16,399

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Intel Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Intel Corp.Technology

Intel Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, sells, and services computing and related end products and services in the United States, Ireland, Israel, and internationally. It operates through three segments: CCG, DCAI, and Intel Foundry. The company offers client computing group products, including client and commercial CPUs, discrete client GPUs, edge computing, and connectivity products; data center and AI products, such as server CPUs, discrete GPUs, and networking products; and semiconductors comprising wafer fabrication, substrates, and other related products and services. It also provides driving assistance and self-driving solutions; and develops and manufactures multi-beam mask writing tools. The company sells its products through sales organizations, distributors, resellers, retailers, and OEM partners. It serves original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, cloud service providers, and other manufacturers and service providers. Intel Corporation has a strategic collaboration with Infosys Limited to develop a multi-layer AI fabric that unifies infrastructure, models, data, applications, and workflows into a composable and agent-ready ecosystem. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.