Market Pulse50Neutral

Insmed IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #303(INSM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$143.98

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$143.98
Price
$1.12
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 99%MOS: $0.90

Fundamental Score

11/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Insmed Incorporated (INSM) is estimated at $1.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -62.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Insmed Incorporated (INSM) is estimated at $1.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $143.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -62.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.57% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.12
▼ -99.22% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: -62.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-292.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

11/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
99.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-2.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -292.3% vs WACC 10.0% (-29.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
84
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-72.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 40m ago
Sources: 44 (37 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
24 news sentiment+0.6
Earnings beat+0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Insmed Incorporated is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 99% above estimated fair value, supported by a strong but improving narrative score. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with negative returns on invested capital far below its cost of capital and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's poor fundamental performance and negative ROIC spread may persist or worsen, undermining any potential recovery in valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -62.45%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -71.34%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$872-$902-$662-$523-$391-$356-$213-$208-$243-$157-$143-$97-$59-$46-$31-$29-$14-$11-$12-$25-$37

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Insmed Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Insmed IncorporatedHealthcare

Insmed Incorporated, a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for patients with serious and rare diseases. The company offers ARIKAYCE for the treatment of Mycobacterium avium complex lung disease as part of a combination antibacterial drug regimen for adult patients. It is also developing Brensocatib, an oral reversible inhibitor of dipeptidyl peptidase 1 for the treatment of patients with bronchiectasis and other neutrophil-mediated diseases; and Treprostinil Palmitil Inhalation Powder, an inhaled formulation of a treprostinil prodrug treprostinil palmitil for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension and other rare pulmonary disorders. Insmed Incorporated was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in Bridgewater, New Jersey.