Market Pulse50Neutral

Ingles Markets, IncorporatedOpportunity Rank #124(IMKTA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$85.12

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$85.12
Price
$232.56
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 173%MOS: $186.05

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) is estimated at $232.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) is estimated at $232.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$232.56
173.21% upside
20% margin of safety: $186.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.58%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.54%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
173.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
21.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.5% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
91
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 38%Updated: 59m ago
Sources: 3 (3 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 news sentiment+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Ingles Markets, Incorporated (IMKTA) presents a compelling buy opportunity with an estimated fair value 183% above its current price and a strong free cash flow yield of 21.6%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's fundamentals remain constructive with active buybacks supporting valuation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, which may pressure future valuation and profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.58%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$349$269$473$440$459$447$473$373$312$284$297$258$263$247$314$195$217$244$338$267$194

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ingles Markets, Incorporated's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ingles Markets, IncorporatedConsumer Defensive

Ingles Markets, Incorporated operates a chain of supermarkets in the southeast United States. It offers food products, including grocery, meat and dairy products, produce, frozen foods, and other perishables; and non-food products, which include fuel centers, pharmacies, health and beauty care products, and general merchandise, as well as private label items. The company also owns and operates a milk processing and packaging plant that supplies organic milk, fruit juices, and bottled water products to other retailers, food service distributors, and grocery warehouses. In addition, it provides home meal replacement items, delicatessens, bakeries, floral departments, and greeting cards, as well as broad selections of local organic, beverage, and health-related items. As of September 25, 2021, the company operated 189 supermarkets under the brand name Ingles, and nine supermarkets under the brand name Sav-Mor in western North Carolina, western South Carolina, northern Georgia, eastern Tennessee, southwestern Virginia, and northeastern Alabama, as well as 111 pharmacies and 107 fuel stations. Ingles Markets, Incorporated was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Asheville, North Carolina.