Market Pulse53Neutral

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Opportunity Rank #300(ICHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$94.02

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$94.02
Price
$11.18
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 88%MOS: $8.94

Fundamental Score

9/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

72/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $11.18 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $94.02, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.71% long-term growth rate and an 11.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $11.18 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $94.02, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.71% long-term growth rate and an 11.25% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$11.18
-88.11% downside
20% margin of safety: $8.94
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.71%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

9/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
88.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.9% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.4x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
1.0x net debt to FCF
60
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (79th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 66%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 15 (9 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
7 news sentiment+0.9
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

72/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+154.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+22.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+7.6%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.8%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA92 · +7.6%
3M RS vs SPY98 · +22.2%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +154.5%
Distance from 52W High54 · -22.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 44d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 81.8% above the estimated fair value of $13.1, supported by weak fundamentals including a negative ROIC spread and low free cash flow yield. The company's financial performance is bearish and trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor return prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of the company's return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.71%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.98%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$33$66$46$73$61$36$49$69$74$47$32$28$12$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ichor Holdings, Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Technology

Ichor Holdings, Ltd. specializes in the conception, development, and production of fluid delivery subsystems and their constituent components, tailored for capital equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing. The company's primary focus is on gas and chemical handling systems, which are integral to the fabrication of semiconductor devices. Their gas delivery units are engineered to precisely supply, monitor, and regulate gases for critical processes like etching and deposition. Complementarily, their chemical delivery subsystems accurately blend and dispense reactive liquid chemistries indispensable for operations such as chemical-mechanical planarization (CMP), electroplating, and various cleaning stages in chip production. Furthermore, Ichor manufactures a diverse array of other specialized items for fluid management, encompassing precision machined components, various welded assemblies (including electron beam and laser-welded types), high-precision vacuum and hydrogen brazed elements, advanced surface treatment technologies, and other proprietary solutions. Ichor distributes its offerings both directly and through resellers to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) operating within the semiconductor equipment market. Its operational footprint spans the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Mexico, and other international regions. Founded in 1999, the company's corporate headquarters are located in Fremont, California.