Market Pulse50Neutral

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Opportunity Rank #261(ICHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$48.77

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$48.77
Price
$26.90
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 45%MOS: $21.52

Fundamental Score

30/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $26.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Ichor Holdings, Ltd. (ICHR) is estimated at $26.90 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.77, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.88% long-term growth rate and a 10.63% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$26.90
-44.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $21.52
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.88%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-1.13%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

30/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
44.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
48
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -1.1% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
81
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
57
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 73%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 28 (19 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
14 news sentiment+0.2
3 analyst upgrades+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 17h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Ichor Holdings, Ltd. is currently overvalued by approximately 41.6% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's financial health and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.89%5 Year CAGR: 12.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$66$66$46$73$61$36$49$69$74$47$32$28$12$14

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Ichor Holdings, Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Ichor Holdings, Ltd.Technology

Ichor Holdings, Ltd. engages in the design, engineering, and manufacture of fluid delivery subsystems and components for semiconductor capital equipment. It primarily offers gas and chemical delivery systems and subsystems that are used in the manufacturing of semiconductor devices. The company's gas delivery subsystems deliver, monitor, and control gases used in semiconductor manufacturing processes, such as etch and deposition; and chemical delivery subsystems blend and dispense the reactive liquid chemistries used in semiconductor manufacturing processes comprising chemical-mechanical planarization, electroplating, and cleaning. It also manufactures precision machined components, weldments, electron beam, laser-welded components, precision vacuum and hydrogen brazing, surface treatment technologies, and other proprietary products for use in fluid delivery systems. The company primarily markets its products directly and through resellers to equipment OEMs in the semiconductor equipment market in the United States, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Malaysia, Korea, Mexico, and internationally. Ichor Holdings, Ltd. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.