Market Pulse50Neutral

International Business Machines CorporationOpportunity Rank #279(IBM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$248.44

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$248.44
Price
$122.79
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 51%MOS: $98.23

Fundamental Score

22/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is estimated at $122.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $248.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is estimated at $122.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $248.44, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$122.79
-50.58% downside
20% margin of safety: $98.23
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.21%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.93%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

22/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
50.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
6.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
3.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-4.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (16th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 99%Updated: 39m ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
140 news sentiment+1.8
46 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
5 upgrade headlines+0.2
2 macro headwinds-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Layoffs-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
IBM is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 50% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a moderately supportive narrative score, the overall outlook remains bearish due to deteriorating financial performance and negative ROIC versus WACC spread.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that IBM's fundamental weaknesses and negative ROIC minus WACC spread may persist or worsen, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.21%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.01%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,100$14,809$15,130$15,741$12,407$15,564$21,427$17,677$19,211$20,497$21,234$21,406$21,051$21,625$24,303$24,513$24,303$24,850$23,699$21,594$20,185

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates International Business Machines Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

International Business Machines CorporationTechnology

International Business Machines Corporation provides integrated solutions and services worldwide. The company operates through four business segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software segment offers hybrid cloud platform and software solutions, such as Red Hat, an enterprise open-source solutions; software for business automation, AIOps and management, integration, and application servers; data and artificial intelligence solutions; and security software and services for threat, data, and identity. This segment also provides transaction processing software that supports clients' mission-critical and on-premise workloads in banking, airlines, and retail industries. The Consulting segment offers business transformation services, including strategy, business process design and operations, data and analytics, and system integration services; technology consulting services; and application and cloud platform services. The Infrastructure segment provides on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions for its clients' mission-critical and regulated workloads; and support services and solutions for hybrid cloud infrastructure, as well as remanufacturing and remarketing services for used equipment. The Financing segment offers lease, installment payment, loan financing, and short-term working capital financing services. The company was formerly known as Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co. International Business Machines Corporation was incorporated in 1911 and is headquartered in Armonk, New York.

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq