Market Pulse44Neutral

International Business Machines CorporationOpportunity Rank #273(IBM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$252.22

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$252.22
Price
$129.24
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 49%MOS: $103.39

Fundamental Score

27/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

33/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is estimated at $129.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $252.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is estimated at $129.24 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $252.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.12% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$129.24
-48.76% downside
20% margin of safety: $103.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.89%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

27/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
48.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
6.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (65th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 6m ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 upgrade headlines+2.2
155 news sentiment+1.8
32 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
Margin pressure+0.1
2 layoffs-0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

33/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.5%
Price vs 21 EMA-5.3%
Price vs 21 EMA20 · -5.3%
Price vs 50 EMA37 · -2.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA72 · +2.8%
3M RS vs SPY15 · -10.5%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -27.7%
Distance from 52W High53 · -23.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
IBM is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 52.5% above estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental profile and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's financial metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that IBM's returns may fail to improve relative to its cost of capital, prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.12%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$14,895$14,809$15,130$15,741$12,407$15,564$21,427$17,677$19,211$20,497$21,234$21,406$21,051$21,625$24,303$24,513$24,303$24,850$23,699$21,594$20,185

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates International Business Machines Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

International Business Machines CorporationTechnology

International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) delivers comprehensive technology solutions and services across the globe. The company's operations are structured into four primary segments: Software, Consulting, Infrastructure, and Financing. The Software division provides hybrid cloud platforms and a range of software offerings, including Red Hat's enterprise open-source solutions. It also develops software for business automation, AIOps and management, integration, and application servers, in addition to data and artificial intelligence tools. This segment further supplies security software and services for threat, data, and identity management, and offers critical transaction processing software that supports essential on-premise workloads for industries such as banking, airlines, and retail. The Consulting arm delivers business transformation services, which encompass strategy development, business process design and operational improvements, data and analytics insights, and system integration. It additionally provides technology consulting and specialized application and cloud platform services. IBM's Infrastructure segment offers both on-premises and cloud-based server and storage solutions, specifically tailored for clients' crucial and regulated operations. It also extends support and solutions for hybrid cloud infrastructure, alongside remanufacturing and remarketing services for used equipment. The Financing segment provides various financial services, such as leasing, installment payment plans, loan financing, and short-term working capital solutions. Originally established in 1911 as the Computing-Tabulating-Recording Co., the company is now known as International Business Machines Corporation and maintains its headquarters in Armonk, New York.