Market Pulse50Neutral

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Opportunity Rank #237(HWM) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$236.04

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$236.04
Price
$59.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 75%MOS: $47.20

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

-6 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $59.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.23% long-term growth rate and a 9.45% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) is estimated at $59.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.23% long-term growth rate and a 9.45% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$59.00
▼ -75.00% downside
20% margin of safety: $47.20
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.23%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.6%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
75.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
17
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
31
Net Debt / FCF
0.9x net debt to FCF
82
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
56.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
-6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (4th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 83 (73 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.8
27 regulatory scrutiny-0.8
3 earnings beat+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 70%
Thesis
Howmet Aerospace Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 81.7% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. The company's fundamentals show a bearish outlook with a deteriorating narrative trend, indicating potential ongoing challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure valuation and performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.23%5 Year CAGR: 31.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$2,558$2,337$1,619$1,120$926$648$276$992$985$1,297$1,998$2,762$2,893

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Howmet Aerospace Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Howmet Aerospace Inc.Industrials

Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating parts, as well as structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications; and aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. The company was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.