Market Pulse59Neutral

The Hershey CompanyOpportunity Rank #149(HSY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$187.06

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$187.06
Price
$190.04
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 2%MOS: $152.03

Fundamental Score

41/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

28/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $190.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $187.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.40% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $190.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $187.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.40% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.26%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$190.04
▲ 1.59% upside
20% margin of safety: $152.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.40%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.31%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

41/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1.6% discount to price
53
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.3% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
37
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (89th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 91 (75 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
54 news sentiment+1.2
Restructuring+0.5
13 regulatory scrutiny-0.5
3 earnings beat+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.2
3 upgrade headlines+0.1

Trend Details

28/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-6.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.9%
Price vs 21 EMA34 · -2.6%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -3.9%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -26.5%
6M RS vs SPY52 · +0.6%
Distance from 52W High57 · -21.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
The Hershey Company shows a supportive narrative with a strong score of 69 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.7%, but its fundamentals are weak with a bearish score of 42 and returns trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a slight upside to fair value, the negative spread between ROIC and WACC signals caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.40%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,530$2,806$3,138$3,094$2,847$2,579$2,141$2,082$1,929$1,507$1,253$1,571$1,209$1,539$1,373$928$1,103$1,211$803$983$922

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Hershey Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Hershey CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. It offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, meat snacks, bars and snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and protein bars. The company provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Paqui, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. It markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. The company was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Hershey, Pennsylvania.