Market Pulse50Neutral

The Hershey CompanyOpportunity Rank #221(HSY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$215.17

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$215.17
Price
$187.39
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 13%MOS: $149.91

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $187.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $215.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.39% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $187.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $215.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.39% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$187.39
▼ -12.91% downside
20% margin of safety: $149.91
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.39%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.75%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.9% premium to price
28
FCF Yield
5.7% trailing FCF yield
93
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
36
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (42nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 105 (92 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
73 news sentiment+0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
16 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 18h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
The Hershey Company shows a healthy free cash flow yield of 5.7% but suffers from weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, with shares currently fully priced above fair value. Given the deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score, the stock is not attractive at current levels.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.39%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.36%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,489$2,806$3,138$3,094$2,847$2,579$2,141$2,082$1,929$1,507$1,253$1,571$1,209$1,539$1,373$928$1,103$1,211$803$983$922

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Hershey Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Hershey CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Hershey Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products and pantry items in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and International. It offers chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery products; gum and mint refreshment products, including mints, chewing gums, and bubble gums; pantry items, such as baking ingredients, toppings, beverages, and sundae syrups; and snack items comprising spreads, meat snacks, bars and snack bites, mixes, popcorn, and protein bars. The company provides its products primarily under the Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Almond Joy, Brookside, barkTHINS, Cadbury, Good & Plenty, Heath, Kit Kat, Payday, Rolo, Twizzlers, Whoppers, York, Ice Breakers, Breath Savers, Bubble Yum, Lily's, SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Paqui, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar brands, as well as under the Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit brands. It markets and sells its products to wholesale distributors, chain grocery stores, mass merchandisers, chain drug stores, vending companies, wholesale clubs, convenience stores, dollar stores, concessionaires, and department stores. The company was founded in 1894 and is headquartered in Hershey, Pennsylvania.