Market Pulse44Neutral

The Hershey CompanyOpportunity Rank #224(HSY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$170.89

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$170.89
Price
$190.04
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $152.03

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

16/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $190.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $170.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.40% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Hershey Company (HSY) is estimated at $190.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $170.89, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.40% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$190.04
▲ 11.21% upside
20% margin of safety: $152.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.40%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.32%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
11.2% discount to price
69
FCF Yield
7.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.3% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
1.8x net debt to FCF
37
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (10th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 61 (47 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
40 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Restructuring+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Trend Details

16/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-33.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-20.4%
Price vs 50 EMA-9.3%
Price vs 21 EMA18 · -5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA12 · -9.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA23 · -3.6%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -33.5%
6M RS vs SPY9 · -20.4%
Distance from 52W High45 · -27.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 53%
Thesis
The Hershey Company shows a modest valuation upside of about 10.4% with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.1%, but its fundamentals remain weak as returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a stable narrative trend, the company's ROIC significantly underperforms its WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.40%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,530$2,806$3,138$3,094$2,847$2,579$2,141$2,082$1,929$1,507$1,253$1,571$1,209$1,539$1,373$928$1,103$1,211$803$983$922

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Hershey Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Hershey CompanyConsumer Defensive

The Hershey Company, operating with its various subsidiaries, serves as a key manufacturer and distributor of both sweet confections and general household pantry items. Its market reach extends across the United States and globally. The enterprise strategically divides its operations into three main business segments: North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks, and an International division. Its extensive product catalog features a wide array of offerings. This includes various chocolate and non-chocolate candies, as well as refreshing chewing gums and mints. Beyond traditional treats, Hershey also supplies pantry essentials such as baking ingredients, dessert toppings, a range of beverages, and sundae syrups. Furthermore, their snack collection encompasses diverse items like spreads, meat snacks, various bars and snack bites, popcorn, and protein bars. The company markets its broad product line under numerous iconic brand names. Its extensive brand portfolio includes household names such as Hershey's, Reese's, Kisses, Jolly Rancher, Kit Kat, Twizzlers, York, and Ice Breakers, alongside other popular confectionery brands like Almond Joy, Cadbury, Heath, Payday, Rolo, and Whoppers. The snack segment features well-known names like SkinnyPop, Pirates Booty, Paqui, Dot's Homestyle Pretzels, and ONE Bar, complemented by international offerings such as Pelon Pelo Rico, IO-IO, and Sofit. Hershey distributes its merchandise through a comprehensive network of channels. These include wholesale distributors, major grocery store chains, large-scale retailers, pharmacies, vending machine operators, warehouse clubs, convenience stores, discount stores, concession stands, and department stores. Established in 1894, The Hershey Company maintains its corporate headquarters in Hershey, Pennsylvania.