Market Pulse50Neutral

Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyOpportunity Rank #266(HPE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$22.33

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$22.33
Price
$17.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 23%MOS: $13.76

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is estimated at $17.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.33, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -5.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.87%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) is estimated at $17.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $22.33, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -5.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.87%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$17.20
-22.96% downside
20% margin of safety: $13.76
Years: 10Growth Rate: -5.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.0% premium to price
12
FCF Yield
15.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.4% vs WACC 10.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
3.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (87th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 80 (75 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
57 news sentiment+2.3
16 regulatory scrutiny+1.7
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company is currently overvalued by approximately 21%, with weak fundamentals reflected in a low ROIC and negative spread versus WACC, despite a strong and stable narrative score. The company's free cash flow yield is relatively high, but declining growth and lack of buybacks weigh on its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative return on invested capital relative to the cost of capital, which may continue to pressure valuation and financial performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -5.50%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -6.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$4,600$5,211$6,708$7,256$7,715$8,373$4,623$6,853$5,920$4,026$8,238$7,005$10,531$11,236$10,715

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise CompanyTechnology

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company provides solutions that allow customers to capture, analyze, and act upon data seamlessly in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Japan. The company offers general purpose servers for multi-workload computing and workload-optimized servers; HPE ProLiant rack and tower servers; HPE BladeSystem and HPE Synergy; and solutions for secondary workloads and traditional tape, storage networking, and disk products, such as HPE Modular Storage Arrays and HPE XP. It also offers HPE Apollo and Cray products; and HPE Superdome Flex, HPE Nonstop, HPE Integrity, and HPE Edgeline products. In addition, the company provides HPE Aruba product portfolio that includes wired and wireless local area network hardware products, such as Wi-Fi access points, switches, routers, and sensors; HPE Aruba software and services comprising cloud-based management, network management, network access control, analytics and assurance, and location; and professional and support services, as well as as-a-service and consumption models for the intelligent edge portfolio of products. Further, it offers various leasing, financing, IT consumption, and utility programs and asset management services for customers to facilitate technology deployment models and the acquisition of complete IT solutions, including hardware, software, and services from Hewlett Packard Enterprise and others. Additionally, the company invests in communications and media solutions. It has a partnership with Striim, Inc. to offer high performance and mission-critical solutions with real-time analytics. It serves commercial and large enterprise groups, such as business and public sector enterprises; and through various partners comprising resellers, distribution partners, original equipment manufacturers, independent software vendors, systems integrators, and advisory firms. Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company (HPE) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq