Market Pulse50Neutral

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Opportunity Rank #304(HOOD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$72.49

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$72.49
Price
$29.66
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 59%MOS: $23.73

Fundamental Score

16/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $29.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.86% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) is estimated at $29.66 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $72.49, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.08% long-term growth rate and a 9.86% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$29.66
▼ -59.08% downside
20% margin of safety: $23.73
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.08%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.15%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

16/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
59.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
14
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
23
Net Debt / FCF
4.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (41st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 215 (200 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
169 news sentiment+0.5
Downgrade headlines-0.2
22 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
5 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 earnings beat-0.0
Macro headwinds-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 90.8% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company's financial health is bearish, with deteriorating narrative trends and negative free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration in returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.08%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 377.53%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,681$1,653-$144$1,202-$795-$801$1,909$1,273

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Robinhood Markets, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Robinhood Markets, Inc.Financial Services

Robinhood Markets, Inc. operates financial services platform in the United States. Its platform allows users to invest in stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), options, gold, and cryptocurrencies. The company also offers various learning and education solutions comprise Snacks, a digest of business news stories; Learn, which is a collection of approximately articles, including guides, feature tutorials, and financial dictionary; Newsfeeds that offer access to free premium news from various sites, such as Barron's, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal; lists and alerts, which allow users to create custom watchlists and alerts to monitor securities, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies, as well as cash management services; and offers First trade recommendations to all new customers who have yet to place a trade. Robinhood Markets, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Menlo Park, California.