Market Pulse50Neutral

Honeywell International Inc.Opportunity Rank #274(HON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$223.01

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$223.01
Price
$155.38
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 30%MOS: $124.30

Fundamental Score

30/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $155.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $223.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.82%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $155.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $223.01, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.82%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$155.38
-30.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $124.30
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

30/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
30.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.2% trailing FCF yield
80
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
8
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 127 (114 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
59 news sentiment+0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Honeywell International Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 29%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The company shows some narrative improvement, but the overall bearish fundamental score suggests caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Honeywell's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.43%5 Year CAGR: 1.22%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$7,365$7,365$7,261$6,379$6,040$6,933$7,114$7,736$7,262$6,997$6,593$6,527$6,118$5,282$4,401$3,631$4,854$4,555$4,675$4,678$3,944

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Honeywell International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Honeywell International Inc.Industrials

Honeywell International Inc. operates as a diversified technology and manufacturing company worldwide. Its Aerospace segment offers auxiliary power units, propulsion engines, integrated avionics, environmental control and electric power systems, engine controls, flight safety, communications, navigation hardware, data and software applications, radar and surveillance systems, aircraft lighting, advanced systems and instruments, satellite and space components, and aircraft wheels and brakes; spare parts; repair, overhaul, and maintenance services; thermal systems, as well as wireless connectivity and management services. The company's Honeywell Building Technologies segment offers software applications for building control and optimization; sensors, switches, control systems, and instruments for energy management; access control; video surveillance; fire products; and installation, maintenance, and upgrades of systems. Its Performance Materials and Technologies segment offers automation control, instrumentation, and software and related services; catalysts and adsorbents, equipment, and consulting; and materials to manufacture end products, such as bullet-resistant armor, nylon, computer chips, and pharmaceutical packaging, as well as provides reduced and low global-warming-potential materials based on hydrofluoro-olefin technology. The company's Safety and Productivity Solutions segment provides personal protection equipment, apparel, gear, and footwear; gas detection technology; cloud-based notification and emergency messaging; mobile devices and software; supply chain and warehouse automation equipment, and software solutions; custom-engineered sensors, switches, and controls; and data and asset management productivity software solutions. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.