Market Pulse59Neutral

Honeywell International Inc.Opportunity Rank #291(HON) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$216.07

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$216.07
Price
$119.34
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 45%MOS: $95.47

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

34/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $119.34 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $216.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.25% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Honeywell International Inc. (HON) is estimated at $119.34 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $216.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.25% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$119.34
-44.77% downside
20% margin of safety: $95.47
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.25%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.82%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
44.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
61
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (3rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 129 (120 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
73 news sentiment+0.3
43 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Restructuring-0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Margin pressure-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

34/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-17.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-14.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-4.3%
Price vs 21 EMA36 · -2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA29 · -4.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA33 · -2.1%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -17.4%
6M RS vs SPY48 · -0.7%
Distance from 52W High72 · -14.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Honeywell International Inc. is currently overvalued with its price trading approximately 44% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag its cost of capital. The company's deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest limited near-term upside.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in return on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further depress valuation and investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.25%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.33%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,090$7,365$7,261$6,379$6,040$6,933$7,114$7,736$7,262$6,997$6,593$6,527$6,118$5,282$4,401$3,631$4,854$4,555$4,675$4,678$3,944

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Honeywell International Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Honeywell International Inc.Industrials

Honeywell International Inc. operates as a diversified technology and manufacturing company worldwide. Its Aerospace segment offers auxiliary power units, propulsion engines, integrated avionics, environmental control and electric power systems, engine controls, flight safety, communications, navigation hardware, data and software applications, radar and surveillance systems, aircraft lighting, advanced systems and instruments, satellite and space components, and aircraft wheels and brakes; spare parts; repair, overhaul, and maintenance services; thermal systems, as well as wireless connectivity and management services. The company's Honeywell Building Technologies segment offers software applications for building control and optimization; sensors, switches, control systems, and instruments for energy management; access control; video surveillance; fire products; and installation, maintenance, and upgrades of systems. Its Performance Materials and Technologies segment offers automation control, instrumentation, and software and related services; catalysts and adsorbents, equipment, and consulting; and materials to manufacture end products, such as bullet-resistant armor, nylon, computer chips, and pharmaceutical packaging, as well as provides reduced and low global-warming-potential materials based on hydrofluoro-olefin technology. The company's Safety and Productivity Solutions segment provides personal protection equipment, apparel, gear, and footwear; gas detection technology; cloud-based notification and emergency messaging; mobile devices and software; supply chain and warehouse automation equipment, and software solutions; custom-engineered sensors, switches, and controls; and data and asset management productivity software solutions. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.