Market Pulse53Neutral

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #155(HHH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$65.75

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$65.75
Price
$80.16
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 22%MOS: $64.13

Fundamental Score

58/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

35/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) is estimated at $80.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $65.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) is estimated at $80.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $65.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.23% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$80.16
21.92% upside
20% margin of safety: $64.13
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.23%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

58/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
21.9% discount to price
87
FCF Yield
12.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
8.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
254.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 55%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 10 (9 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 news sentiment+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

35/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.6%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.8%
Price vs 50 EMA-3.7%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.8%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.1%
3M RS vs SPY44 · -1.4%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -27.6%
Distance from 52W High47 · -26.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. presents a 16.5% valuation upside with constructive fundamentals and a strong narrative trend, despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital. The company shows potential for growth supported by a high free cash flow CAGR and a stable narrative score.
Key Risk
Elevated leverage at 8.1x net debt to free cash flow poses a significant financial risk.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.23%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 277.95%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$488$466$451-$201$327-$282-$71$215$215$326$69$39-$50$161$227$131-$68-$18

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.Real Estate

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. is an American real estate development firm that operates through its subsidiaries across the United States. The company organizes its diverse activities into four primary divisions: Operating Assets, Master Planned Communities (MPCs), Seaport, and Strategic Developments. Its Operating Assets division oversees a portfolio of retail, office, and multi-family properties, which have either been developed or acquired, in addition to other retail investments. The Master Planned Communities (MPCs) segment focuses on the creation, sale, and leasing of both residential and commercial land for extensive, long-term community projects, primarily located in and around Las Vegas, Nevada; Houston, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona. This segment largely serves homebuilders. The Seaport division is responsible for landlord operations, business management, and event/sponsorship services for its collection of restaurant, retail, and entertainment venues in New York City, including Pier 17, the Historic Area/Uplands, the Tin Building, 250 Water Street, and the Jean-Georges restaurants. Finally, the Strategic Developments segment undertakes the development and redevelopment of residential condominiums and commercial properties. Established in 2010, Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in The Woodlands, Texas.

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq