Market Pulse50Neutral

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.Opportunity Rank #164(HHH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Real Estate

Current Price

$64.17

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$64.17
Price
$79.05
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 23%MOS: $63.24

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

49/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) is estimated at $79.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $64.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.21% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. (HHH) is estimated at $79.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $64.17, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.21% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.13%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$79.05
23.19% upside
20% margin of safety: $63.24
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.21%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.91%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.2% discount to price
89
FCF Yield
12.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
7.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
251.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

49/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (20th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 46%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 11 (11 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 news sentiment-0.1
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. shows a valuation implying a 16.7% upside with constructive fundamentals and strong free cash flow growth. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, and leverage is elevated at 7.8x net debt to free cash flow.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns remain below its cost of capital, undermining value creation despite positive valuation signals.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.21%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 275.93%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
$468$484$451-$201$327-$282-$71$215$215$326$69$39-$50$161$227$131-$68-$18

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.Real Estate

Howard Hughes Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate development company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Operating Assets; Master Planned Communities (MPCs); Seaport; and Strategic Developments. The Operating Assets segment consists of developed or acquired retail, office, and multi-family properties along with other retail investments. Its MPCs segment develops, sells, and leases residential and commercial land designated for long-term community development projects in and around Las Vegas, Nevada; Houston, Texas; and Phoenix, Arizona. The Seaport segment is involved in the landlord operations, managed businesses, and events and sponsorships services of its restaurant, retail, and entertain properties in Pier 17, New York City; Historic Area/Uplands; and Tin Building, as well as in 250 Water Street and in the Jean-Georges restaurants. The Strategic Development segment develops and redevelops residential condominiums and commercial properties. It serves homebuilders. Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.