Market Pulse50Neutral

HEICO CorporationOpportunity Rank #273(HEI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$279.64

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$279.64
Price
$121.29
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 57%MOS: $97.03

Fundamental Score

37/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

47/100
Weak

-5 vs previous

The intrinsic value of HEICO Corporation (HEI) is estimated at $121.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $279.64, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.84%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of HEICO Corporation (HEI) is estimated at $121.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $279.64, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.84%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$121.29
-56.63% downside
20% margin of safety: $97.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

37/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
56.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.5% trailing FCF yield
13
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.5% vs WACC 9.0% (0.4x)
19
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
21
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
17.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

47/100
Weak
-5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 69%Updated: 45m ago
Sources: 22 (21 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny-0.5
13 news sentiment+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
HEICO Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 55.5% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite some positive free cash flow growth and buybacks, the overall financial health and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.50%5 Year CAGR: 15.31%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$979$1,007$731$498$500$480$432$466$370$301$280$191$207$150$154$135$111$86$87$70$57

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates HEICO Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

HEICO CorporationIndustrials

HEICO Corporation, through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells aerospace, defense, and electronic related products and services in the United States and internationally. The company's Flight Support Group segment provides jet engine and aircraft component replacement parts; thermal insulation blankets and parts; renewable/reusable insulation systems; and specialty components. This segment also distributes hydraulic, pneumatic, structural, interconnect, mechanical, and electro-mechanical components for the commercial, regional, and general aviation markets; and offers repair and overhaul services for jet engine and aircraft component parts, avionics, instruments, composites, and flight surfaces of commercial aircraft, as well as for avionics and navigation systems, subcomponents, and other instruments utilized on military aircraft. Its Electronic Technologies Group segment provides electro-optical infrared simulation and test equipment; electro-optical laser products; electro-optical, microwave, and other power equipment; electromagnetic and RFI shielding and suppression filters; high-speed interface products; high voltage interconnection devices; high voltage advanced power electronics; power conversion products; and underwater locator beacons and emergency locator transmission beacons. This segment also offers traveling wave tube amplifiers and microwave power modules; three-dimensional microelectronic and stacked memory products; harsh environment connectivity products and custom molded cable assemblies; radio frequency and microwave amplifiers, transmitters, and receivers; communications and electronic intercept receivers and tuners; self-sealing auxiliary fuel systems; active antenna systems; and nuclear radiation detectors. The company serves customers primarily in the aviation, defense, space, medical, telecommunications, and electronics industries. HEICO Corporation was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Hollywood, Florida.