Market Pulse50Neutral

The Home Depot, Inc.Opportunity Rank #208(HD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$330.90

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$330.90
Price
$327.05
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 1%MOS: $261.64

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

-3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is estimated at $327.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $330.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.58% long-term growth rate and an 8.44% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is estimated at $327.05 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $330.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.58% long-term growth rate and an 8.44% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$327.05
▼ -1.16% downside
20% margin of safety: $261.64
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.58%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.56%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1.2% premium to price
48
FCF Yield
6.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
30
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
8
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
-3 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 53m ago
Sources: 216 (200 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
137 news sentiment+0.9
54 regulatory scrutiny-0.7
2 upgrade headlines-0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
3 earnings beat-0.0
Demand slowdown+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 62%
Thesis
The Home Depot, Inc. shows weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield, and its valuation is near fair value, suggesting patience is warranted. The deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score indicate limited near-term upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.58%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$20,004$23,295$24,398$17,734$19,137$21,302$16,401$15,607$13,928$11,404$10,876$9,684$9,017$8,287$7,872$5,681$6,091$7,375$9,285$11,203

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Home Depot, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Home Depot, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer. It operates The Home Depot stores that sell various building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden products, and décor products, as well as facilities maintenance, repair, and operations products The company also offers installation services for flooring, cabinets and cabinet makeovers, countertops, furnaces and central air systems, and windows. In addition, it provides tool and equipment rental services. The company primarily serves homeowners; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, maintenance professionals, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialty tradesmen, such as electricians, plumbers, and painters. It also sells its products through websites, including homedepot.com; blinds.com, an online site for custom window coverings; and thecompanystore.com, an online site for textiles and décor products. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 2,317 stores in the United States. The Home Depot, Inc. was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Atlanta, Georgia.

The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq