Market Pulse63Bullish

HCA Healthcare, Inc.Opportunity Rank #118(HCA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$406.59

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$406.59
Price
$1,358.71
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 234%MOS: $1,086.97

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is estimated at $1,358.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $406.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.19% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.79%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is estimated at $1,358.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $406.59, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.19% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.79%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1,358.71
234.17% upside
20% margin of safety: $1,086.97
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
234.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
20.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.1% vs WACC 7.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
2.6x net debt to FCF
12
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
67
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (68th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 36 (24 News · 12 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.9
Analyst downgrades-0.3
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.4%
Price vs 21 EMA62 · +1.9%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA31 · -2.4%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -30.9%
6M RS vs SPY7 · -23.1%
Distance from 52W High49 · -25.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 31d ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 273% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 21.8%. The company’s constructive fundamentals and ongoing buybacks suggest potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.19%5 Year CAGR: 7.59%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$18,071$17,580$15,389$14,175$12,917$12,536$12,067$11,760$10,334$8,441$8,413$7,109$6,624$5,623$6,037$5,612$4,410$4,064$3,397$2,840$3,710

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

HCA Healthcare, Inc.Healthcare

HCA Healthcare, Inc., operating through its subsidiaries, delivers a comprehensive array of healthcare services throughout the United States. The organization manages a network of general and acute care hospitals that provide a full spectrum of medical and surgical care, encompassing inpatient services, intensive care, cardiac treatment, diagnostic procedures, and emergency services. These hospitals additionally offer a broad range of outpatient care, such as ambulatory surgery, laboratory testing, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. Beyond its hospital infrastructure, HCA Healthcare operates numerous specialized outpatient facilities. These include standalone ambulatory surgery centers, dedicated emergency care facilities, urgent care clinics, walk-in clinics, advanced diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology treatment facilities, physician practices, and various other healthcare sites. Furthermore, the company oversees psychiatric hospitals, which offer diverse therapeutic programs. These services cater to child, adolescent, and adult psychiatric care, alongside adolescent and adult alcohol and drug abuse treatment and counseling. As of December 31, 2021, HCA Healthcare's extensive portfolio included 182 hospitals, specifically 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals. Its network also featured 125 freestanding surgery centers and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers, all distributed across 20 states and England. Founded in 1968 and formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc., the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Nashville, Tennessee.