Market Pulse50Neutral

HCA Healthcare, Inc.Opportunity Rank #110(HCA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$494.58

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$494.58
Price
$1,289.95
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 161%MOS: $1,031.96

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is estimated at $1,289.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $494.58, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.43%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) is estimated at $1,289.95 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $494.58, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.17% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.43%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1,289.95
160.82% upside
20% margin of safety: $1,031.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.03%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
160.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.0% vs WACC 7.0% (0.9x)
43
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
9
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
64
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 48m ago
Sources: 85 (69 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+0.5
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
HCA Healthcare, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 167% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 15.9%. The company's improving narrative and constructive fundamentals suggest potential for sustained growth and value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is currently not generating returns above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.17%5 Year CAGR: 7.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,580$17,580$15,389$14,175$12,917$12,536$12,067$11,760$10,334$8,441$8,413$7,109$6,624$5,623$6,037$5,612$4,410$4,064$3,397$2,840$3,710

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates HCA Healthcare, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

HCA Healthcare, Inc.Healthcare

HCA Healthcare, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides health care services company in the United States. The company operates general and acute care hospitals that offers medical and surgical services, including inpatient care, intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic, and emergency services; and outpatient services, such as outpatient surgery, laboratory, radiology, respiratory therapy, cardiology, and physical therapy. It also operates outpatient health care facilities consisting of freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, freestanding emergency care facilities, urgent care facilities, walk-in clinics, diagnostic and imaging centers, rehabilitation and physical therapy centers, radiation and oncology therapy centers, physician practices, and various other facilities. In addition, the company operates psychiatric hospitals, which provide therapeutic programs comprising child, adolescent and adult psychiatric care, adolescent and adult alcohol, drug abuse treatment, and counseling services. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 182 hospitals, including 175 general and acute care hospitals, five psychiatric hospitals, and two rehabilitation hospitals; 125 freestanding surgery centers; and 21 freestanding endoscopy centers in 20 states and England. The company was formerly known as HCA Holdings, Inc. HCA Healthcare, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee.