Market Pulse44Neutral

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #233(GS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1,106.37

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,106.37
Price
-$2,444.11
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 321%MOS: -$1,955.29

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

89/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $-2,444.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,106.37, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.36% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $-2,444.11 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,106.37, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -73.36% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$2,444.11
-320.91% downside
20% margin of safety: -$1,955.29
Years: 10Growth Rate: -73.36%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.8%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
320.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-11.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-86.9% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
+1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 141 (131 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
115 news sentiment+1.4
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Layoffs+0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

89/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+21.2%
Price vs 50 EMA+11.6%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +5.9%
Price vs 50 EMA90 · +11.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA85 · +5.3%
3M RS vs SPY97 · +21.2%
6M RS vs SPY85 · +16.0%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by a bearish fundamental outlook and deteriorating narrative. Despite some buybacks, the company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating weak financial health.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure the company's valuation and financial performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -73.36%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -88.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$37,662-$43,090-$11,121-$10,271$12,456$10,965-$12,226$32,311$28,403-$14,557$8,446$8,794-$6,945$5,249$13,840$22,829-$4,930$50,431$3,921-$66,067-$45,873

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Financial Services

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) operates as a prominent global financial services firm, offering an extensive array of services to corporations, financial institutions, governmental bodies, and individuals worldwide. The company's operations are organized into four primary divisions: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management. The Investment Banking segment furnishes strategic advisory services covering intricate transactions such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense strategies, restructurings, and spin-offs. It also extends various lending facilities, including middle-market, relationship, and acquisition financing, in addition to transaction banking services. This division further specializes in underwriting, assisting clients with equity offerings for common, preferred, and convertible securities, as well as debt offerings encompassing investment-grade, high-yield, bank/bridge loans, and emerging market debt instruments, alongside the creation of structured securities. Within its Global Markets division, Goldman Sachs engages in client execution activities for both cash and derivative instruments, provides solutions for credit and interest rate products, and offers comprehensive equity intermediation, financing, clearing, settlement, and custody services. This segment also transacts in products linked to mortgages, foreign exchange, commodities, and equities. The Asset Management segment is responsible for managing assets across a diverse spectrum of classes, including equities, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, and commodities. It delivers tailored investment advisory solutions and makes direct investments in corporate entities, real estate ventures, and infrastructure projects. The Consumer & Wealth Management segment provides individual clients with wealth advisory and banking services. These include financial planning, investment management, deposit-taking, and lending. It also offers private banking services, unsecured loans, and accepts savings and time deposits. Founded in 1869, the company's corporate headquarters are located in New York, New York.