Market Pulse50Neutral

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #288(GS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$831.27

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$831.27
Price
$13.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $10.78

Fundamental Score

15/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

-3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $13.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $831.27, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.52% long-term growth rate and a 10.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) is estimated at $13.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $831.27, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -74.52% long-term growth rate and a 10.73% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$13.48
-98.38% downside
20% margin of safety: $10.78
Years: 10Growth Rate: -74.52%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

15/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-17.3% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
92
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-87.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
-3 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (37th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 202 (196 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
120 news sentiment+1.5
67 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
5 layoffs+0.1
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
2 legal risk+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is currently overvalued with an estimated fair value significantly below its market price, supported by a weak fundamental score and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. Although the narrative trend is improving, the overall outlook remains bearish due to poor financial metrics.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued deterioration of returns on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -74.52%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -88.69%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$43,090-$43,090-$11,121-$10,271$12,456$10,965-$12,226$32,311$28,403-$14,557$8,446$8,794-$6,945$5,249$13,840$22,829-$4,930$50,431$3,921-$66,067-$45,873

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.Financial Services

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a financial institution, provides a range of financial services for corporations, financial institutions, governments, and individuals worldwide. It operates through four segments: Investment Banking, Global Markets, Asset Management, and Consumer & Wealth Management. The company's Investment Banking segment provides financial advisory services, including strategic advisory assignments related to mergers and acquisitions, divestitures, corporate defense activities, restructurings, and spin-offs; and middle-market lending, relationship lending, and acquisition financing, as well as transaction banking services. This segment also offers underwriting services, such as equity underwriting for common and preferred stock and convertible and exchangeable securities; and debt underwriting for various types of debt instruments, including investment-grade and high-yield debt, bank and bridge loans, and emerging-and growth-market debt, as well as originates structured securities. Its Global Markets segment is involved in client execution activities for cash and derivative instruments; credit and interest rate products; and provision of equity intermediation and equity financing, clearing, settlement, and custody services, as well as mortgages, currencies, commodities, and equities related products. The company's Asset Management segment manages assets across various classes, including equity, fixed income, hedge funds, credit funds, private equity, real estate, currencies, and commodities; and provides customized investment advisory solutions, as well as invests in corporate, real estate, and infrastructure entities. Its Consumer & Wealth Management segment offers wealth advisory and banking services, including financial planning, investment management, deposit taking, and lending; private banking; and unsecured loans, as well as accepts saving and time deposits. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in New York, New York.