Market Pulse50Neutral

Garmin Ltd.Opportunity Rank #213(GRMN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$238.71

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$238.71
Price
$173.41
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 27%MOS: $138.73

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $173.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $238.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.81%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Garmin Ltd. (GRMN) is estimated at $173.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $238.71, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.69% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.81%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$173.41
-27.36% downside
20% margin of safety: $138.73
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.69%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.72%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.4% premium to price
4
FCF Yield
4.1% trailing FCF yield
54
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
48
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
63
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 85%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 67 (63 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+0.3
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Garmin Ltd. is currently overvalued with its estimated fair value 27.8% below the current price, supported by a net cash or near net cash balance sheet. The company shows a bearish fundamental score and a deteriorating narrative trend, indicating potential challenges ahead.
Key Risk
The key risk is the continued deterioration in ROIC relative to WACC, which may further weaken the company's value proposition.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC vs WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.69%5 Year CAGR: 7.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,904$1,904$1,626$1,571$1,034$1,322$1,323$819$1,080$813$802$365$601$687$730$864$807$1,151$989$842$458

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Garmin Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Garmin Ltd.Technology

Garmin Ltd. designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes a range of wireless devices in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Australian Continent, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Its Fitness segment offers running and multi-sport watches; cycling products; activity tracking and smartwatch devices; and fitness and cycling accessories. This segment also provides Garmin Connect and Garmin Connect Mobile, which are web and mobile platforms; and Connect IQ, an application development platform. The company's Outdoor segment offers adventure watches, outdoor handhelds, golf devices and mobile apps, and dog tracking and training devices. Its Aviation segment designs, manufactures, and markets various aircraft avionics solutions comprising integrated flight decks, electronic flight displays and instrumentation, navigation and communication products, automatic flight control systems and safety-enhancing technologies, audio control systems, engine indication systems, traffic awareness and avoidance solutions, ADS-B and transponder solutions, weather information and avoidance solutions, datalink and connectivity solutions, portable GPS navigators and wearables, and various services products. The company's Marine segment provides chartplotters and multi-function displays, cartography products, fish finders, sonar products, autopilot systems, radars, compliant instrument displays and sensors, VHF communication radios, handhelds and wearable devices, sailing products, entertainment, digital switching products, and trolling motors. Its Auto segment offers embedded computing models and infotainment systems; personal navigation devices; and cameras. The company sells its products through independent retailers, online retailers, dealers, distributors, installation and repair shops, and original equipment manufacturers, as well as an online webshop, garmin.com. Garmin Ltd. was founded in 1989 and is based in Schaffhausen, Switzerland.