Market Pulse44Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #15(GOOGL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$349.68

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$349.68
Price
$446.22
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 28%MOS: $356.98

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

-16 vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $446.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $349.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.58% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $446.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $349.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.58% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$446.22
▲ 27.61% upside
20% margin of safety: $356.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.6% discount to price
96
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
-16 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (2nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 243 (200 News · 43 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
181 news sentiment+1.0
3 upgrade headlines+0.5
12 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
3 legal risk-0.1
Layoffs-0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 21 EMA-4.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+7.0%
Price vs 21 EMA22 · -4.9%
Price vs 50 EMA34 · -3.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA64 · +1.7%
3M RS vs SPY56 · +1.4%
6M RS vs SPY68 · +7.0%
Distance from 52W High74 · -13.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 29.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 86 and a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points. The company's free cash flow growth and stable narrative score further reinforce a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
A decline in ROIC below the cost of capital or a significant negative shift in the company narrative could undermine the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.30%5 Year CAGR: 19.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$284,277$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. provides a diverse range of products and digital platforms to consumers across multiple global regions, including North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's operations are organized into three primary divisions: Google Services, Google Cloud, and "Other Bets." The Google Services segment delivers core offerings such as its advertising solutions, the Android operating system, the Chrome browser, and various hardware. It also features popular applications like Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. This division further handles the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via the Google Play store, alongside marketing devices such as Fitbit wearables, Google Nest smart home products, Pixel smartphones, and other proprietary hardware. It also provides non-advertising services for YouTube. The Google Cloud segment offers a comprehensive suite of infrastructure, platform, and other cloud computing services for businesses. This includes Google Workspace, a collection of cloud-native collaboration tools for enterprises, featuring applications like Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other specialized services for corporate clients. Lastly, the "Other Bets" segment is engaged in developing and selling health technology and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its principal executive offices in Mountain View, California.