Market Pulse57Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #21(GOOGL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$359.51

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$359.51
Price
$443.85
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 23%MOS: $355.08

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $443.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $359.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $443.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $359.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$443.85
23.46% upside
20% margin of safety: $355.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.5% discount to price
89
FCF Yield
6.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 238 (200 News · 38 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
167 news sentiment+8.5
23 regulatory scrutiny+1.8
5 legal risk-1.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
2 earnings beat+0.3
Demand slowdown+0.2

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-10.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+2.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+1.1%
Price vs 21 EMA50 · -0.0%
Price vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY60 · +2.3%
6M RS vs SPY53 · +1.1%
Distance from 52W High79 · -10.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 29.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 86 and a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points. The company's free cash flow growth and stable narrative score further reinforce a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
A decline in ROIC below the cost of capital or a significant negative shift in the company narrative could undermine the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.30%5 Year CAGR: 19.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$284,277$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. provides a diverse range of products and digital platforms to consumers across multiple global regions, including North and South America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia-Pacific. The company's operations are organized into three primary divisions: Google Services, Google Cloud, and "Other Bets." The Google Services segment delivers core offerings such as its advertising solutions, the Android operating system, the Chrome browser, and various hardware. It also features popular applications like Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. This division further handles the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via the Google Play store, alongside marketing devices such as Fitbit wearables, Google Nest smart home products, Pixel smartphones, and other proprietary hardware. It also provides non-advertising services for YouTube. The Google Cloud segment offers a comprehensive suite of infrastructure, platform, and other cloud computing services for businesses. This includes Google Workspace, a collection of cloud-native collaboration tools for enterprises, featuring applications like Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other specialized services for corporate clients. Lastly, the "Other Bets" segment is engaged in developing and selling health technology and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its principal executive offices in Mountain View, California.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq