Market Pulse50Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #14(GOOGL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$302.06

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$302.06
Price
$426.99
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 41%MOS: $341.59

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $426.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $302.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is estimated at $426.99 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $302.06, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$426.99
▲ 41.36% upside
20% margin of safety: $341.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
41.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.1% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
69
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
24.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (47th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 237 (200 News · 37 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
176 news sentiment+5.6
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
Earnings beat+0.3
Margin pressure-0.1
2 legal risk-0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) is undervalued with a fair value estimated 46.2% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 85 and a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 3.1 percentage points. The company's free cash flow growth and stable narrative score further reinforce a bullish investment outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the company’s ROIC falls below its cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.24%5 Year CAGR: 17.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$256,160$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. provides various products and platforms in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific, Canada, and Latin America. It operates through Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets segments. The Google Services segment offers products and services, including ads, Android, Chrome, hardware, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search, and YouTube. It is also involved in the sale of apps and in-app purchases and digital content in the Google Play store; and Fitbit wearable devices, Google Nest home products, Pixel phones, and other devices, as well as in the provision of YouTube non-advertising services. The Google Cloud segment offers infrastructure, platform, and other services; Google Workspace that include cloud-based collaboration tools for enterprises, such as Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet; and other services for enterprise customers. The Other Bets segment sells health technology and internet services. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.