Market Pulse56Neutral

Alphabet Inc.Opportunity Rank #9(GOOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$358.16

Last updated: Jun 12, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$358.16
Price
$445.96
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 25%MOS: $356.77

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

60/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-12

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is estimated at $445.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $358.16, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is estimated at $445.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $358.16, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.59% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$445.96
▲ 24.51% upside
20% margin of safety: $356.77
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.5% discount to price
91
FCF Yield
6.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.5% vs WACC 8.0% (1.4x)
72
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
26.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (51st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 20h ago
Sources: 206 (200 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
177 news sentiment+6.1
18 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
Layoffs-0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.2
2 legal risk-0.2
Downgrade headlines+0.1

Trend Details

60/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-12311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-10.2%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+6.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.5%
Price vs 21 EMA35 · -2.5%
Price vs 50 EMA50 · -0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA69 · +2.5%
3M RS vs SPY76 · +6.8%
6M RS vs SPY60 · +3.7%
Distance from 52W High80 · -10.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 2d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) is undervalued with a fair value estimated 30.6% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high fundamental score of 86 and a ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 3.5 points. The company's free cash flow yield and growth metrics further reinforce a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the current upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.30%5 Year CAGR: 19.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$284,277$256,160$177,834$133,997$122,980$116,292$87,405$78,068$73,110$50,275$46,248$35,939$33,335$26,017$19,892$18,003$15,099$10,126$10,211$8,178$5,483

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Alphabet Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Alphabet Inc.Communication Services

Alphabet Inc. operates globally, providing a wide array of products and digital platforms to customers across the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia-Pacific region, Canada, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three primary segments: Google Services, Google Cloud, and Other Bets. The Google Services division delivers a broad spectrum of consumer-facing offerings, which include its advertising products, the Android operating system, Chrome browser, various hardware devices, Gmail, Google Drive, Google Maps, Google Photos, Google Play, Search functionality, and YouTube. This segment also generates revenue through the sale of applications, in-app purchases, and digital content via Google Play and YouTube, alongside device sales and consumer subscriptions for YouTube services. Conversely, the Google Cloud segment furnishes enterprise-grade solutions such as infrastructure, cybersecurity, database management, analytics, artificial intelligence, and other professional services. This encompasses the Google Workspace suite, a collection of cloud-native communication and collaboration tools for businesses, including Gmail, Docs, Drive, Calendar, and Meet, among other offerings tailored for corporate clients. The Other Bets segment is dedicated to developing nascent ventures, particularly those focused on healthcare-related and internet services. Established in 1998, Alphabet Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Mountain View, California.