Market Pulse59Neutral

GMS Inc.Opportunity Rank #119(GMS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$109.96

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.96
Price
$193.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 76%MOS: $154.90

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$193.62
76.08% upside
20% margin of safety: $154.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.61%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
76.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
2.5x net debt to FCF
14
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
51
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (44th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 36%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 1 (1 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
News sentiment+0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08143 daily bars used
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
GMS Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value over 100% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows potential for value appreciation backed by strong buybacks and cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly lags its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.61%5 Year CAGR: 18.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$423$431$490$494$221$183$328$212$112$78$55$62$29$30

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates GMS Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

GMS Inc.Industrials

GMS Inc. distributes wallboard, ceilings, steel framing and complementary construction products in the United States and Canada. The company offers ceilings products, including suspended mineral fibers, soft fibers, and metal ceiling systems primarily used in offices, hotels, hospitals, retail facilities, schools, and various other commercial and institutional buildings. It also provides steel framing products, such as steel tracks, studs, and various other steel products used to frame the interior walls of a commercial or institutional building; and insulation, lumber and other wood products, ready-mix joint compound, and various other interior construction products, as well as ancillary products comprising tools, fasteners, and safety products. In addition, the company distributes acoustical ceilings, steel framing, insulation, and related building products, as well as commercial and residential building materials. It serves professional contractors and homebuilders. As of April 30, 2022, the company operated 300 branches across 44 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 6 provinces in Canada. It also operates a network of approximately 300 distribution centers. GMS Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tucker, Georgia.