Market Pulse50Neutral

GMS Inc.Opportunity Rank #152(GMS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$109.96

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.96
Price
$193.62
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 76%MOS: $154.90

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of GMS Inc. (GMS) is estimated at $193.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$193.62
76.08% upside
20% margin of safety: $154.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
76.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
2.5x net debt to FCF
14
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
51
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 1 driver
Trend: StableConfidence: 38%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 1 (1 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
News sentiment+0.2

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
GMS Inc. is undervalued with a fair value estimate over 100% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and buyback activity present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly trailing its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.61%5 Year CAGR: 18.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013
$423$431$490$494$221$183$328$212$112$78$55$62$29$30

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates GMS Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

GMS Inc.Industrials

GMS Inc. distributes wallboard, ceilings, steel framing and complementary construction products in the United States and Canada. The company offers ceilings products, including suspended mineral fibers, soft fibers, and metal ceiling systems primarily used in offices, hotels, hospitals, retail facilities, schools, and various other commercial and institutional buildings. It also provides steel framing products, such as steel tracks, studs, and various other steel products used to frame the interior walls of a commercial or institutional building; and insulation, lumber and other wood products, ready-mix joint compound, and various other interior construction products, as well as ancillary products comprising tools, fasteners, and safety products. In addition, the company distributes acoustical ceilings, steel framing, insulation, and related building products, as well as commercial and residential building materials. It serves professional contractors and homebuilders. As of April 30, 2022, the company operated 300 branches across 44 states and the District of Columbia, as well as 6 provinces in Canada. It also operates a network of approximately 300 distribution centers. GMS Inc. was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Tucker, Georgia.