Market Pulse50Neutral

Gambling.com Group LimitedOpportunity Rank #144(GAMB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$4.08

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$4.08
Price
$9.38
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 130%MOS: $7.50

Fundamental Score

61/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB) is estimated at $9.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB) is estimated at $9.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$9.38
▲ 129.90% upside
20% margin of safety: $7.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

61/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
129.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
6
Net Debt / FCF
4.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 58%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 13 (8 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
8 news sentiment+0.2
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 20h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Gambling.com Group Limited is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 239% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows strong narrative momentum and consistent buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining substantially below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.26%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.08%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$19$13$71$27$28$20$11$6$15$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Gambling.com Group Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Gambling.com Group LimitedConsumer Cyclical

Gambling.com Group Limited operates as a performance marketing company for the online gambling industry worldwide. The company provides digital marketing services for the iGaming and sports betting. It publishes various branded websites, including Gambling.com and Bookies.com. Gambling.com Group Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in St. Helier, Jersey.