Market Pulse57Neutral

Gambling.com Group Ltd(GAMB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$1.86

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1.86
Price
$0.01
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 99%MOS: $0.01

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Gambling.com Group Ltd (GAMB) is estimated at $0.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Gambling.com Group Ltd (GAMB) is estimated at $0.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1.86, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.00% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 5.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.01
▼ -99.46% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.01
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-11.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
99.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -11.1% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
18.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-6.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (40th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 49%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 4 (2 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 news sentiment+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Gambling.com Group Limited is currently overvalued by approximately 27% with weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company exhibits elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth, indicating financial stress and poor operational performance.
Key Risk
Continued negative spread between ROIC and WACC combined with high leverage could exacerbate financial instability and depress valuation further.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.02%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -13.78%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$6$13$71$27$28$20$11$6$15$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Gambling.com Group Ltd's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Gambling.com Group LtdCommunication Services

Gambling.com Group Limited provides marketing and sports data services for the gambling industry in North America, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company offers digital marketing, and consumer and enterprise data subscription services for iGaming and social casino products. It also provides intra group and ticketing services, as well as fantasy data. In addition, the company offers sports betting and fantasy sports data through its sports data platform and under the OddsJam, OpticOdds, and RotoWire brand names. Additionally, it operates various branded websites, including Gambling.com, Bookies.com, Casinos.com, and Freebets.com. Further, the company operates BonusFinder.com; Spotlight.Vegas, an online booking platform that helps customers access experiences, such as live events and local attractions; and launched website to individual U.S. states and the Canadian states that provide local online gamblers with the news and analysis. Gambling.com Group Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Saint Helier, Jersey.