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Gambling.com Group Limited(GAMB) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Consumer Cyclical

Current Price

$4.42

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$4.42

Price

$9.38

Intrinsic Value

MOS

Undervalued by 112%MOS: $7.50

Fundamental Score

62/100

Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100

Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

0/100

Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of Gambling.com Group Limited (GAMB) is estimated at $9.38 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $4.42, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.26% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.71%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$9.38

▲ 112.22% upside

20% margin of safety: $7.50

Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.26%Discount Rate: 10.00%

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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC

1.05%

Cost of Capital (estimated)9%

Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with.

Fundamental Details

62/100

NeutralWeighted across 6 signals

DCF Discount

112.2% discount to price

100

FCF Yield

12.5% trailing FCF yield

100

ROIC vs WACC

ROIC 1.1% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)

Net Debt / FCF

4.8x net debt to FCF

Buybacks

Share count shrinking

FCF CAGR (5Y)

12.1% 5Y FCF CAGR

Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100

Weak

Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (67th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers

Trend: StableConfidence: 60%Updated: 16h ago

Sources: 15 (10 News · 5 Analyst)

Drivers(last 30 days)

9 news sentiment+0.1

Margin pressure+0.0

5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

0/100

NeutralRules-based daily model

Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago

BUYConfidence: 54%

Thesis

Gambling.com Group Limited is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 213% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows an improving narrative and strong free cash flow growth.

Key Risk

The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are below the cost of capital.

Signals To Watch

Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.

Ask the Coach - Available with

Historical Growth Rates

Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.26%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.08%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017
$19	$13	$71	$27	$28	$20	$11	$6	$15	$9

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Gambling.com Group Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Gambling.com Group LimitedConsumer Cyclical

Gambling.com Group Limited operates as a performance marketing company for the online gambling industry worldwide. The company provides digital marketing services for the iGaming and sports betting. It publishes various branded websites, including Gambling.com and Bookies.com. Gambling.com Group Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in St. Helier, Jersey.