Market Pulse50Neutral

Futu Holdings LimitedOpportunity Rank #280(FUTU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$140.04

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$140.04
Price
$102.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 27%MOS: $81.65

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $102.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.41% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.95%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $102.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $140.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.41% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.95%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$102.06
▼ -27.12% downside
20% margin of safety: $81.65
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.41%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.1% premium to price
5
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
38
Net Debt / FCF
Net debt to FCF unavailable
50
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-67.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 68%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 23 (22 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
17 news sentiment+0.5
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Earnings beat+0.2
Analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 20h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 87%
Thesis
Futu Holdings Limited is currently overvalued by approximately 27%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. Despite a strong narrative score, deteriorating trends and thin free cash flow yield suggest caution.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in fundamentals and failure to improve ROIC relative to WACC could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.41%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -79.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202420232022202120202019201820172016
$0$3,978-$799$455$776$2,617$267$573$238$179

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Futu Holdings LimitedFinancial Services

Futu Holdings Limited provides digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, which serves as an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.

Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq