Market Pulse44Neutral

Futu Holdings LimitedOpportunity Rank #322(FUTU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$99.97

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$99.97
Price
$1.57
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 98%MOS: $1.26

Fundamental Score

17/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

48/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

6/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $1.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.97, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.83% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $1.57 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.97, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.83% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.57
▼ -98.43% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.83%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.7%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

17/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
98.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.7% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
35
Net Debt / FCF
Net debt to FCF unavailable
50
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-79.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

48/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 27m ago
Sources: 96 (94 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
55 legal risk-0.4
29 news sentiment+0.3
8 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

6/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-48.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-49.8%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.8%
Price vs 50 EMA3 · -16.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA1 · -13.4%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -40.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -48.5%
Distance from 52W High0 · -49.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 87%
Thesis
Futu Holdings Limited is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 98.3% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and a bearish score of 17. The company’s returns are trailing its cost of capital, and free cash flow yield is negligible, indicating poor financial health and limited growth prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its weighted average cost of capital, which could further deteriorate its valuation and financial stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 12.95%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -73.58%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$0$5,210$3,975-$798$455$776$2,615$266$573$238$179

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Futu Holdings LimitedFinancial Services

Futu Holdings Limited is a global provider of digital brokerage services for securities and the distribution of wealth management products, with operations based in Hong Kong. The company's primary offerings include a full spectrum of online financial services delivered through its proprietary digital platforms, Futubull and Moomoo. These services cover brokerage for trading securities and derivatives, margin lending, and the distribution of investment funds. Beyond trading, Futu also supplies financial market data and analytical information. Its "Money Plus" brand, integrated into the Futubull and Moomoo platforms, grants clients access to a diverse array of online wealth management products, such as mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other investment vehicles. A key component of its ecosystem is the "NiuNiu Community," an interactive online forum where users and clients can freely share insights, pose questions, and discuss financial ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was established in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.