Market Pulse59Neutral

Futu Holdings LimitedOpportunity Rank #304(FUTU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$144.89

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$144.89
Price
$102.12
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 30%MOS: $81.70

Fundamental Score

18/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

25/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $102.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $144.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.93% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Futu Holdings Limited (FUTU) is estimated at $102.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $144.89, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.93% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.97%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$102.12
▼ -29.52% downside
20% margin of safety: $81.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.93%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
8.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

18/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
29.5% premium to price
1
FCF Yield
0.0% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.8x)
38
Net Debt / FCF
Net debt to FCF unavailable
50
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-79.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (36th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 77%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 28 (27 News · 1 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
17 news sentiment+0.2
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

25/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-31.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.4%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA55 · +0.6%
3M RS vs SPY13 · -11.4%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -31.8%
Distance from 52W High45 · -27.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 87%
Thesis
Futu Holdings Limited is currently overvalued by approximately 29.5% with weak fundamentals and a bearish score of 18, indicating poor financial health and underperformance relative to its cost of capital. The company's free cash flow yield is negligible, and its return on invested capital is below its weighted average cost of capital, suggesting limited value creation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamentals may deteriorate further, exacerbating its valuation disconnect and leading to sustained negative returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread indicating better capital efficiency.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 12.95%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -73.59%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
$0$5,217$3,981-$800$455$777$2,619$267$573$238$179

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Futu Holdings Limited's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Futu Holdings LimitedFinancial Services

Futu Holdings Limited provides digitalized securities brokerage and wealth management product distribution service in Hong Kong and internationally. It offers online financial services, including securities and derivative trades brokerage, margin financing and fund distribution services through its Futubull and Moomoo digital platforms. The company also provides financial information and online community services; online wealth management services under the Money Plus brand name through its Futubull and moomoo platforms, which provides its client access to mutual funds, private funds, bonds, structured products, and other wealth management products; market data and information services; and NiuNiu Community, which serves as an open forum for users and clients to share insights, ask questions, and exchange ideas. Futu Holdings Limited was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Admiralty, Hong Kong.